Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he is prepared to use nuclear weapons in his war on Ukraine. But, perhaps not against Ukraine, itself, because the threats have been directed to NATO and especially to the U.S. However, Ukraine is certainly in the spotlight at the moment, and battlefield (tactical) nukes are a very real possibility now as well as chemical weapons. President Biden told us not to be afraid of Putin’s nuclear threats and some policy analysts have shrugged them off or tried to minimize the threat. But the threat is real, as Fiona Hill, lately of the National Security Agency assures us in an interview with Politico. So, it is entirely prudent to ask ourselves: Is a nuclear was approaching?
The Defense Readiness Condition
The Defense Readiness Condition (DEFCON) is the way the military decides its state of readiness for war, and particularly, nuclear war. No one outside the military and its civilian leadership knows exactly and officially what DEFCON level we are presently under. But my previous twenty years of military service allows me to approximate with a fair degree of probability that we are at DEFCON 3 as of March 23, 2022.
The lowest state of readiness is DEFCON 5. This is when the countries in the world (and particularly, the countries with nuclear weapons) are at peace. There is no known imminent threat to the U.S. at DEFCON 5. However, and since 9/11, I suppose that we have been at a perpetual, heightened state of readiness 24/7 and for every month of every year. So, it is entirely reasonable that we have been at DEFCON 4 for most of the time since the terrorist attacks of 2001, though I cannot know for sure. DEFCON 4 is characterized by “Increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measures.”
“Every time you think, ’No, he [Putin] wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course. It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.”
‘’Yes, He Would“: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes” POLITICO Magazine
Let’s skip over DEFCON 3 for a moment and look at DEFCON 2. DEFCON 2 is described as “Armed forces ready to deploy and engage in less than six hours.” It is also one step below nuclear war. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.S. military was at DEFCON 3, but the Strategic Air Command (SAC) was at DEFCON 2. This was the air command charged with delivering nuclear bombs to the Soviet Union (USSR). As I recall, we flew B-52 bombers near the USSR, but with the bomb bay doors open to demonstrate to the Russians that we were responding to their threat even though we were not armed (at-the-moment) with weapons of mass destruction. DEFCON 1 is war.
So, we’re likely not at DEFCON 4 because we have another European war underway and because one of the belligerents has raised their nuclear state of readiness preemptively. We’re likely not at DEFCON 2 at the moment, which would represent a significant increase in our readiness, and perhaps elicit a further escalation from Russia. That leaves DEFCON 3: “Increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness” as the most likely readiness status (in my opinion.)
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin has never been pictured by those Westerners who have met with him as particularly warm or gregarious. And we know should all realize now that he is not
“We will go to heaven as martyrs, they [the West] will simply croak because they won’t even have time to repent.”
Vladimir Putin, 2019
benevolent and merciful either. Generally, the adjectives that come to mind include words such as “ruthless,” “driven” and “unforgiving.” Of late, there is well-placed concern based on his physical appearance that he is taking some sort of steroids. Steroids have a reputation for causing aggressive behavior in those men who are on these medications. So, it may not be wise for our elected leaders to taunt him with ad hominen attacks such as “murderer” and “war criminal” or calling for someone in Russia to assassinate him. Thumping your chest on what may be the eve of destruction solves nothing as far as I can see. Nor does hypocrisy. When the Soviet Union sent their soldiers and weapons to communist Cuba during the Kennedy administration, the U.S. saw a threat and entertained the idea of invading a sovereign nation (Cuba) on our border, ourselves. We felt threatened. True, NATO claims that the U.S. missles in Romania and Poland are defensive in nature (e.g., interceptors) and the Cuban missiles were offensive in nature, but offensive missiles in the U.S. aimed at our nuclear opponents have kept the peace since WW II, thanks to the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD.). Effective defensive weapons can tip the scales in your favor as well.
“People should know Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to consequences you have never encountered in your history.”
Vladimir Putin, February 23, 2022 in remarks addressed to the U.S. and NATO
Recently, Putin’s rhetoric seems particularly embittered. He feels that the West (and the U.S. in particular) has behaved disrespectfully towards Russia since the fall of communism. He believes that Russia is still a major power in the world and needs to be heard. Just a month ago as his tanks prepared to pour into Ukraine, he said of NATO and the U.S. “You didn’t want us to be friends, but you didn’t have to make an enemy of us.” Emmanuel Macron, President of France was perhaps persuaded somewhat by Putin’s argument and wondered whether the West was not at least partly responsible for this unhappy state of affairs. Says Fiona Hill: “Now, he feels perhaps like a man of destiny trying to restore the dream of Russkiy Mir or Russian World circa 1,000 A.D. This idea of a Russian World means re-gathering all the Russian-speaking people from different places that belonged at some point to the Russian tsardom.” This includes as a minimum Belarus (White Russia) and Ukraine. To some older Russians (Putin included), Ukraine is like a prodigal young brother that must be restored to the fold after receiving a sound thrashing for disobedience. And this punishment is a warning to other former Soviet republics (such as Georgia) as well as former communist countries such as Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. Perhaps also neutral countries such as Sweden and Finland as well.
“You didn’t want us to be friends, but you didn’t have to make an enemy of us.”
Vladimir Putin, February 2022
A true story
To illustrate how Putin takes what he wants, Robert Craft of the New England Patriots and several others had an opportunity years ago to have an audience with Putin. As Putin was speaking to the group, he noticed Craft’s Superbowl ring. When Craft understood that Putin was curious, he took it off and asked Putin whether Putin would like to examine it. Putin did and admired it even more, before pocketing it and walking out the door, leaving Craft one ring short. Despite reputable sources reporting this encounter (which ultimately got the late Senator John McCain’s attention as well as President George W. Bush. I recently asked Fiona Hill if it was really true and she said it was probably true as well. If Putin then would steal a ring from a visiting businessman, and not return it after understanding it was not his to keep, is it so strange that he’s in Ukraine at this moment robbing that country of it statehood, freedom and future? See an update on the story here.
True or false
Russia invaded Ukraine because they said Ukraine was pursuing weapons of mass destruction (false), because NATO is encroaching ever closer to Russia’s borders (true), and because of Neo-Nazis elements in government (partially true if you consider the Azov Battalian and other pro-fascist militia that the Ukraian government seems to be trying to control by assimilating them.). Plus, there are pro-Russian militia groups such as the Donbas People’s Militia and the Luhansk People’s Militia that are just as likely to harass the Ukrainians as the Azov Battalian is to mix it up with the Russians living in Eastern Ukraine. Putin also claims that the Ukraine is a fake country (false) with boundaries that have been drawn and redrawn many times over the past 120 years (true for for the Ukraine most other countries in Europe as well.)
President Biden has been repeatedly emphatic that under no circumstances will the U.S. or NATO intervene in his war with the Ukraine. That admission appears to be an unfortunate remark according to European and Russian policy analysists. This gives Putin the green light to do what his wishes, such as kidnap thousands of women and children and take them to Russia to an uncertain but certainly unpleasant fate. He can crush every remaining Ukrainian under the tracks of his tanks (those that still work), gas people to death or launch bioweapons with impunity, with nothing more than the threat of more sanctions. At some point someone will have to stop this murderous war, and we (either the U.S. or NATO) cannot do so without the threat of intervention.
What next then?
Russia’s military as far as what has been committed to fight in Ukraine) has been decimated, and Putin cannot sustain these sorts of losses for another month. The more conventional forces he loses, the more likely a nuclear option may be considered. Already he has ordered nuclear evacuation drills, and from his Ilyushin Il-80 Maxdomes (pictured above) he can launch a global thermonuclear war. The chances of this happening are still slim, but growing a tiny bit more likely every day.
Think a nuclear war cannot happen? Check out this simulation.
Also, this editorial by Senator Mitt Romney in the May 24th edition of the “NY Times.”
Also, see my post on “Duck and Cover” for information and instructions that hopefully we’ll never need.
New York City now has a public service announcement on nuclear attack. Watch it here.
See also
Executive Order on partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation
September 20: What has changed?
Ukraine received independence at the fall of the Soviet Union (1991). This map (below) shows the country as it was on that date. The people who live in central and western Ukraine basically
lean more to Europe while the people in eastern Ukraine lean more to Russia. This has led to low grade conflict between the two groups until 2014 when a pro-Russian national government was deposed in favor of a western government. On that occasion, Russia invaded Ukraine and seized the Crimea, which had strategic value to Russia. The Russian people living in Ukraine voted to join Russia, and Russian claims the Crimeria belons to Russia. Russia also occupied a wide area of eastern Ukraine in support of the local militia, blaming the national Ukraine government of atrocities again the innocent Russian people of eastern Ukraine and accusing the Kiefv government of being Nazis.
Russian invaded Ukraine again early this year and occupied more Ukranian territory. But this month, Ukraine has been able to take much of it back, while attacking Russian troops positions in Ukraine. Now, Russian is hosting a sham election next week where people living in Ukraine will vote to join Russia. There is no doubt the election will be rigged. At that point, Russia will claim even more Ukrainian territory as part of “Mother Russia” and any attacks by Ukraine will be viewed as an attack on Russia, itself (not on Ukraine trying to. liberate Ukrainian cities, because Russia will say they are now Russian cities.) Because Ukraine gets their weapons from NATO countries, Russia will say that NATO is a party in attacking Russia, and then all bets are off as to whether Russia will use nuclear weapons. At that point, the chance of nuclear war become very dangerous. The Atlantic Council, a private and very prestigious organization has already included on their website a list of options for President Biden to consider should Russia use tactical nukes in Ukraine (see also an excellent essay from The Telegraph here.) These options clearly describe the dilemma that all sides find themselves in at the moment. No doubt, NATO will be meeting this week as well.
In the interest of promoting accurate, scholarly information, I’ve included the text from Putin’s speech to the Russian people last evening.
Read English text of Putin’s address to the people of the Russian Federation (9/20/2022)
Personal note: No one should panic at this point. We do live in dangerous times, but that has been true for our entire lives. If we’re not hearing about nuclear war, then it’s global warming, rising seas, wildfires, drought, pandemics, etc. If you’re not a Christian, you should know that fear can be a good thing. Proverbs 9:10 says , “The fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom. . .” I personally use news stories like this to be sure my family has an emergency plan in care of disaster (hurricanes, blizzards, and Yes! Nuclear attack.) I also perform a self-evaluation of whether my faith is in good health as well.
Martin Luther was onced asked what he would do if he thought the world would end on the next day. He replied that he would plant a tree. That’s a healthy response in my opinion.