Poland is getting very, very nervous. They’ve never gotten along with Belarus, and now thousands of troublemaking soldiers of fortune and convicts (e.g., violent criminal offenders) that comprise the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) are arriving in Belarus within short striking distance of Polish territory. Plus, Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening to attack Poland if hostilities break out between Poland and Belarus. So, in order to be prepared to defend its border, Poland is understandably moving forces eastward toward Belarus. Germany has offered assistance if Poland is attacked, but all thirty-two NATO nations are obligated under Article V of the NATO Charter to come to Poland’s aid if Poland is attacked, so German’s offer of aide is appreciated, but not needed.
The Sulwaki Corridor
The Sulwaki Corridor or Sulwaki Gap as it is sometimes called is a 45 mile wide “ill-defined strip of land officially situated along the Polish-Lithuanian border.” It connects Belarus with the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad. The territory that the Corridor occupies was ceded to Poland following the Battle of the Niemen River of 1920, after which the two belligerents (Poland and Lithuania) signed the Treaty of Suwalki recognizing Punsk, Sejny, and Suwalki as part of independent Poland. It separated Poland from Lithuania. These two countries have long been hostile to each other, though now because they are both members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and because they have a common enemy (Russia), tensions appear to have been greatly reduced.
The Sulwaki Corridor is important to Russia because it forms the only land route Russia has to service the residents of Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad, with one million people (mostly ethnically Russian), is roughly the size of Northern Ireland. Belarus on the eastern end of the Corridor is a client state of Russia. The Corridor has been called “NATO’s Achille’s heel” and “the most dangerous place on Earth.” This is because Russian seizure of the Corridor would likely start World War III. Russians concerns over Kaliningrad might give Putin an excuse to seize the Corridor, especially since the Baltic countries (plus Poland) have been attempting to enforce European sanctions on certain embargoed goods and services flowing through the Corridor from Belarus to Kaliningrad and from the west to east as well. Absent the Corridor, Russia would have to transport goods by sea to Kaliningrad. This is possible, but in war particularly dangerous, especially since Sweden and Finland are members of NATO now and would be patrolling those waters along with ships from other NATO countries.
The fact that almost ten thousand members altogether–many, again, who are prison convicts–of Wagner’s PMC are expected to arrive in Belarus in the next few weeks causes concern to these countries, and especially to Poland. On the one hand, Russia, currently pinned down in Ukraine, would not seem to be in a position to pick a fight with Poland, Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania. But Yevgeny Prigozhin’s (co-founder of Wagner PMC) might, especially if the armed forces of Belarus assisted him and he wanted to get back into the good graces of Putin after the recent mutiny. Only today, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said: “The Wagnerites are beginning to stretch us. I ask: ‘Why do you need to go to the West?’ [They reply:] ‘We want to go on an excursion to Warsaw, to Rzeszow’.” The Telegraph article goes on to note:
“Analysts have warned that the Kremlin may be setting up a “false flag” incident to justify an attack on Poland. Wagner fighters have been training Belarusian special forces on the border with Poland.
Is Poland next?
I’ve personally noticed that Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin projects a lot. According to Psychology Today, projection is “the process of displacing one’s feelings onto a different person, animal, or object.” That “object” can be a country, like Britain or Ukraine. In a recent (7/21/2023) address to members of the Russian Security Council which I’ve included at the bottom of this post, Putin accuses Poland of wanting Ukranian territory to compensate for perceived historical injustices. Putin says “in the event Polish forces enter, say, Lvov or other Ukrainian territories, they will stay there, and they will stay there for good.” Yet, this is exactly what he has done to the Crimea. Who truly believes that Russian troops will ever leave the Crimea unless forced out by Kjiv? If Putin accuses Ukraine of terror tactics, he means he (Putin) is considering doing or has already done the exact same thing to his neighbor. He has said that Ukraine is liable to destroy the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, yet his soldiers control it, have recently moved suspicious looking boxes to the roof of one of the buildings at the plant. It is Russia that is denying the International Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) permission to access the roof of that building in question to examine these boxes. So to me, if Putin says there is a threat that Poland might invade Belarus (and Putin has said so–see below), it means that he is thinking about attacking Poland first in some sort of “pre-emptive measure.” This would be most likely done by proxy through the Wagner PMC, assisted by Belarus either directly or indirectly. Meanwhile, Russia is moving tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus while there is no NATO country bordering Russia that has nuclear weapons at the moment. It was only last month after the first Russian nuclear weapons were positioned in Belarus that Poland asked for the same from NATO. This is the Polish perception in any event. More recently, members of the Warner PMO have been camped out near the Belarus entrance to the Sulwaki Corridor. Poland is concerned that they may impersonate refugees or migrants and attempt illegal entry in that guise. But there are other possibilities for mischief as well.
What is Putin thinking?
True, Russia has been repeatedly invaded throughout history: Napoleon (1812); Austria-Hungary (1914); England and the U.S. (1918) and Germany (1941.) But they didn’t become the largest country in the world in terms of territory by being repeatedly invaded. As Poland marshalls its forces to the border to keep Belarusian soldiers or Wagner forces from invading Poland or the Sulwaki Corridor, Putin warns “Belarus is part of the Union State, and launching an aggression against Belarus would mean launching an aggression against the Russian Federation. We will respond to that with all the resources available to us.” Putin used Belarus to invade Ukraine. Putin continues to launch attacks against Ukraine from Belarus. Putin moved thousands of Wagner personnel into Belarus. And, Putin deployed nuclear weapons to Belarus. But if Poland dare defend itself from Russian aggression launched from their puppet state (Belarus), then Putin promises that there will be consequences.
The countries that joined NATO after the fall of communism did so because they have earned the hard way not to trust Russia. And the closer a country is to Russia’s borders, the least trusting of Russia it seems to be. President Putin repeatedly has complained of “land swaps” made by Joseph Stalin during the days of communism, but it is not easy, or a good idea, to national redraw boundaries the way they were in the year 1900 or the year 900 or whatever time Putin has in mind.
Meanwhile, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and NATO in general must remain vigilant.
President Putin’s comments
Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council 7/21/23, 4:53 PM
Vladimir Putin held, via videoconference, a meeting on current issues with permanent members of the Security Council.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, colleagues. We have several issues on today’s agenda; one of them is the development of relations with our friends on the African continent. Russia will host the Russia-Africa Summit soon. Another issue relates to a very important area, the use of information technology to ensure the country’s security.
But first of all, I would like to ask if anyone has anything relevant to discuss. Yes, please,
Mr Naryshkin. Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin: Mr President,
colleagues. According to information provided to the service by several sources, officials in Warsaw
are gradually coming to an understanding that no kind of Western assistance to Kiev can support Ukraine in reaching the goals of this assistance. Moreover, they are beginning to understand that Ukraine will be defeated in only the matter of time. In this regard, the Polish authorities are getting more intent on taking the western parts of Ukraine under control by deploying their troops there. There are plans to present this measure as the fulfillment of allied obligations within the Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian security initiative, the so-called Lublin Triangle.
We see that plans also call for significantly increasing the number of personnel of the combined Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, which operates under the auspices of this so-called Lublin Triangle. We believe that it is necessary to keep a close eye on these dangerous plans of the Polish authorities.
Vladimir Putin: Yes. We should elaborate on what Mr Naryshkin has just said. This information has already appeared in the European media, in particular, the French. I believe it would be suitable in this context to also remind everyone about several history lessons from the 20th century.
It is clear today that the Western curators of the Kiev regime are certainly disappointed with the results of the counteroffensive that the current Ukrainian authorities announced in previous months. There are no results, at least for now resources that were pumped into the Kiev regime, the supply of Western weapons, such as tanks, artillery, armoured vehicles and missiles, and the deployment of thousands of foreign mercenaries and advisers, who were most actively used in attempts to break through the front of our army, are not helping. Meanwhile, the commanders of the special military operation are acting professionally.
Our soldiers, officers and units are fulfilling their duty to the Motherland courageously, steadfastly and heroically. At the same time, the whole world sees that the vaunted Western, supposedly invulnerable, military equipment is on fire, and is often even inferior to some of the Soviet-made weapons in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics.
Yes, of course, more Western weapons can be supplied and thrown into battle. This, of course, causes us some damage and prolongs the conflict. But, firstly, NATO arsenals and stockpiles of old Soviet weapons in some countries are already largely depleted. And secondly, the West does not have the production capacities to quickly replenish the consumption of reserves of equipment and ammunition. Additional, large resources and time are needed.
The main thing is that formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered huge losses as a result of self-destructive attacks: tens of thousands of people. And, despite the constant raids and the incessant waves of total mobilisation in Ukrainian cities and villages, it is increasingly difficult for the current regime to send new soldiers to the front. The country’s mobilisation resource is being depleted.
People in Ukraine are asking a legitimate question more often: for what, for the sake of whose selfish interests, are their relatives and friends dying. Gradually, slowly, but clarity comes.
We can see the public opinion changing in Europe, too. Both the Europeans and European elites see that support for Ukraine is, in fact, a dead end, an empty, endless waste of money and effort, and in fact, serving someone else’s interests, which are far from European: the interests of the overseas global hegemon, which benefits from the weakening of Europe. The endless prolongation of the Ukrainian conflict is also beneficial to it.
Judging by the actual state of affairs, this is exactly what today’s US ruling elites are doing. Anyways, this is the logic they follow. It is largely questionable whether such a policy is in line with the American people’s true, vital interests; this is a rhetorical question, and it is up to them to decide.
However, massive efforts are being taken to stoke the fire of war – including by exploiting the ambitions of certain East European leaders, who have long turned their hatred for Russia and Russophobia into their key export commodity and a tool of their domestic policy. And now they want to capitalise on the Ukrainian tragedy.
In this regard, I cannot refrain from commenting on what has just been said and on media reports that have come out about plans to establish some sort of the socalled Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian unit. This is not about a group of mercenaries – there are plenty of them there and they are being destroyed – but about a well organised, equipped regular military unit to be used for operations in Ukraine, including to allegedly ensure the security of today’s Western Ukraine – actually, to call things by their true name, for the subsequent occupation of these territories. The outlook is clear: in the event Polish forces enter, say, Lvov or other Ukrainian territories, they will stay there, and they will stay there for good. And we will actually see nothing new. Just to remind you, following WWI, after the defeat of Germany and its allies, Polish units occupied Lvov and adjacent territories that had been part of Austria-Hungary.
With its actions incited by the West, Poland took advantage of the tragedy of the Civil War in Russia and annexed certain historical Russian provinces. In dire straits, our country had to sign the Treaty of Riga in 1921 and recognise the annexation of its territories.
Even earlier, back in 1920, Poland captured part of Lithuania – the Vilnius region, a territory surrounding the present-day Vilnius. So they claimed that they fought together with the Lithuanians against so-called Russian imperialism, but then immediately snatched a piece of land from their neighbour as soon as the opportunity presented itself.
As is well known, Poland also took part in the partition of Czechoslovakia following the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler in 1938, by fully occupying Cieszyn Silesia.
In the 1920-1930s, Poland’s Eastern Borderlands (Kresy) – a territory that comprises present-day Western Ukraine, Western Belarus and part of Lithuania – witnessed a tough policy of Polonisation and assimilation of local residents, with efforts to suppress local culture and Orthodoxy.
I would also like to remind you what Poland’s aggressive policy led to. It led to the national tragedy of 1939, when Poland’s Western allies threw it to the German wolf, the German miliary machine. Poland actually lost its independence and statehood, which were only restored thanks in a large measure to the Soviet Union. It was also thanks to the Soviet Union and thanks to Stalin’s position that Poland acquired substantial territory in the west, German territory. It is a fact that Poland’s western lands are a gift from Stalin. Have our Warsaw friends forgotten this? We will remind them.
Today we see that the regime in Kiev is ready to go to any length to save its treacherous hide and to prolong its existence. They do not care for the people of Ukraine or Ukrainian sovereignty or national interests. They are ready to sell anything, including people and land, just like their ideological forefathers led by Petlyura, who signed the so-called secret conventions with Poland
in 1920 under which they ceded Galicia and Western Volhynia to Poland in return for military support. Traitors like them are ready now to open the gate to their foreign handlers and to sell Ukraine again. As for the Polish leaders, they probably hope to form a coalition under the NATO umbrella in order to directly intervene in the conflict in Ukraine and to bite off as much as possible, to “regain,” as they see it, their historical territories, that is, modern-day Western Ukraine. It is also common knowledge that they dream about Belarusian land.
Regarding the policy of the Ukrainian regime, it is none of our business. If they want to relinquish or sell off something in order to pay their bosses, as traitors usually do, that’s their business. We will not interfere. But Belarus is part of the Union State, and launching an aggression against Belarus would mean launching an aggression against the Russian Federation. We will respond to that with all the resources available to us.
The Polish authorities, who are nurturing their revanchist ambitions, hide the truth from their people. The truth is that the Ukrainian cannon fodder is no longer enough for the West. That is why it is planning to use other expendables – Poles, Lithuanians and everyone else they do not care about.
I can tell you that this is an extremely dangerous game, and the authors of such plans should think about the consequences.
Mr Naryshkin, I hope that your service, just as the other special services, will closely monitor the developments.
Let’s get down to the main issues on our agenda.
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Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council • President of Russia 7/21/23, 4:53 PM
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71714
Publication status Published in sections: News, Transcripts, Security Council
Publication date: July 21, 2023, 13:05
Direct link: en.kremlin.ru/d/71714