Iran issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) OIIX TEHERAN (ACC/FIC/FIR) early this Monday morning. Most of it looks like code to the average person, but a closer look reveals that it contains GPS locations, radio frequencies, and specific warnings buried in it. Such as:
"PROBABLE GPS (GNSS) FAILURE OR DEGRADATION WI TEHRAN FIR,
PILOTS SHALL REPORT TO ATC AND CONSIDER GPS (GNSS) ANOMALIES
INCLUDING DEGRADED OPERATION AND/OR LOSS OF SERVICE,
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE."
While this can indicate nothing more than Iranian plans to conduct routine military exercises over its territory, foreign diplomats believe that Iran is preparing for an airstrike on or from Israel, either as a counterstrike in response to an attack on Israel by Iran, or perhaps a preemptive attack from Israel which launch the hostilities. Either way, commercial aircraft are advised to avoid Iran. The concern shared by diplomats is partly because Iran has rebuffed efforts from Arab and Western nations to “dial down” the heated Iranian threats of attack against Israel following the assassination of Hamas terrorist leader Ismail Haniyeh who was visiting Tehran, the capital of Iran. While some reports say Haniyeh was killed by in a bomb attack previously planted in his quarters, Iran insists it was a result of some sort of missile.
Some Israeli’s expect the attack to occur on August 9-10 when the Jews observe Tisha B’av, the anniversary of the destruction of both Temples, most recently in 70 AD under the Roman General Titus. The original temple, build in King Solomon’s lifetime, was also destroyed August 9-10, but in 586 BC by King Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon.
All weekend, France, Britain and other countries have urged their citizens in Lebanon or Iran to leave the country immediately while travel is still possible.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Home Front Command issued updated directives to the populace which includes guidance, such as “For the communities situated in the confrontation line in northern Israel, gatherings are limited to up to 30 people outdoors and up to 300 people indoors. Beaches are currently closed.”
Israel expects this forthcoming attack to be more aggressive than the Iranian attack on Israel on April 13th of this year. The U.S. has deployed the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the area along with other ships, as have the British in anticipation of the attack. It is very possible that Hizbollah in Lebanon and the terrorists in Yeman also plan to participate in the attack.
Any attack by Iran has the potential to roil the U.S. election campaign, currently heated enough as Vice-President Harris has pulled neck-and-neck with former President Donald Trump. Regardless of which candidate is ahead in this battleground state or that, the lead is currently small enough to be a statistical uncertainty.
Feature photo caption (abbr): Iranian missiles are launched during a military maneuver dubbed “al-Tasoul al-Aazam,” or Greater Prophet, in a desert near the holy city of Qom 80 miles (130 kilometers) south of Tehran.