Last Sunday, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev tweeted (or is it now called “X’d?”) that Russia’s enemies had better pray Russian forces in Ukraine were successful in winning the war, else Russia would have no choice but to go nuclear under current Russian doctrine. He was speaking in particular about Ukraine pushing Russia out of what Medvedev calls “our land.” Medvedev did not say what land he considers Russian land. More than likely, he meant the Crimea. But what about the oblasts of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia? Those areas were annexed by Russia last September in violation of international law, even as the Crimea was in 2014. What of Russia’s losses of naval ships such as the Moskva or the Saratov. Or the Olenegorsky Gornyak which was not sunk but badly damaged while in a Russian port (Novorossiysk?) What of drone strikes in the Russian capital? And what did Medvedev mean when he mentioned Russia in that case would “use the nuclear weapon?” Is he referring to tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, or the broader use of nuclear weapons against NATO countries in general?
The solution to the threat according to Medvedev is that the enemies of Russia “must worship our warriors” that they would be successful in keeping the Ukranian offensive from being successful. Some translations of Medvedec’s comments say Moscow’s enemies must “pray” for Russian soldiers that they might achieve military successes rather than “worship” the Federal Security Service (FSB) forces. But either way, the threat is clear enough.
Medvedec routinely refers to the use of nuclear weapons. Given the poor performance of one of the three most highly rated conventional armed forces against a third rate military force with a Navy smaller than Disney and very few planes at the moment (in any case, not enough to guarantee air superiority), boasting about the 5,889 nuclear warheads Russia has is the only threat he can presently drum up. The introduction of Abrams tanks in September and F-16 jets in the Ukraine theater later this fall makes it much more likely that Russia will have to show that it is indeed not bluffing as President Putin said last fall, or it may have to withdraw its forces from Ukraine much as the U.S. withdrew from Vietnam–in humiliation and defeat.
The problem with drawing “lines in the sand” as U.S. President Obama discovered in the case of Syria is that it obligates a nation to do what it promised if a line is crosses. On the other hand, if a country is not specific in its threats, then how can its adversaries understand how seriously concerned or alarmed it is in the first place? You risk “crying wolf.”
Reconstructing history
Who does the Crimea belong to? Who does southeastern Ukraine belong to? Or western Ukraine? For that matter, who does Kaliningrad belong to? Or Karelia or the Japanese islands of Habomai, Shikotan, Kunashiri and Etorofu? If the goal is to redraw the maps of Europe and elsewhere, overlooking treaties and past political decisions made by people in power in the process, then all bets are off. At what point in the ages past do we begin? And where does it end?
The Ukranian Soviet Socialist Republic was part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics governed by Moscow at the end of World War II. However, on February 19, 1954, the Supreme Soviet Presidium gifted the Crimea to Ukraine. This was a shock to everyone (including the Ukranians) and questionably legal under Soviet law since there was not a quorum of the Presidium present for the vote. But in only fifteen minutes, First Secretary Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev got his way. Why did he do this? Khrushchev said it was to reward Ukraine on the anniversary of their three hundred year alliance (the Pereiaslav Agreement) between the cossacks of the Ukraine with the Tsar of Russia. If the USSR existed today as it did in 1954, the point of transferring the Crimea would be moot.
I’m not a European historian, but I can understand President Putin’s grievance. There is an important Russian naval base at Sevastopol. Perhaps negotiations might have reached some sort of agreement between Russia and Ukraine where Sevastopol might have been leased to Russia? There were blood ties between the Ukranian and Russian people, but now this blood has been spilled, perhaps poisoned for generations. But was Russia correct in invading Ukraine to take it by force? By then, Ukraine was acknowledged internationally as a sovereign nation with recognized borders. In thirty-two years, we’ll celebrate the eight hundred anniversary of the founding of Konigsberg. Germans have lived there for seven centuries prior to the Second World War. Should Germany have the right to reclaim that land? Probably not, because Germany (and Japan) were co-belligerents in the twentieth century, but what about the land Stalin took from Finland? My own mother was born in Germany, but her hometown now belongs to Poland in the aftermath of the “Great Patriotic War.” Where does this all end? The concern of the West is that if Putin has his way in this war, then every few years he may try to carve off another piece of Ukraine and call it Russian soil. Already, he has his soldiers in Moldova (Transnistria) working to achieve some end known only to him in that country.
There are rumors of peace talks in the wind. Perhaps the Saudis or the South Africans, China or India will add their good offices to the initiative. Hopefully a way forward will be found and nothing more will need to be said about the Apocalypse.
What Dmitry Medvedev has said
| Approximate date | Comments |
| January 19, 2023 | “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war . . . Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends.” |
| March 23, 2023 | Asked if the threat of the apocalypse has diminished: “No, it hasn’t decreased, it has grown. Every day when they provide Ukraine with foreign weapons brings the nuclear apocalypse closer.” |
| April 25, 2023 | Speaking to youth: “Stop suffering because the temperature rose by one degree in such and such a year or over such and such a period. Humanity has been watching this for a very short time. Do you really care about the climate to such an extent? In my opinion, this is nothing compared to the prospect of being at the epicenter of an explosion with a temperature of 5,000 Kelvin (scale). Is there such a prospect today? (Unfortunately,) yes. And it is growing every day for well-known reasons . . .” |
| July 5, 2023 | The war in Crimia could be“brought to an end within a few days” by doing what “the Americans did in 1945 when they deployed nuclear weapons and bombed two Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.” |
| July 30, 2023 | “Just imagine that the offensive… in tandem with NATO, succeeded and ended up with part of our land being taken away. Then we would have to use nuclear weapons by virtue of the stipulations of the Russian Presidential Decree . . .There simply wouldn’t be any other solution. . . Our enemies should pray to our fighters that they do not allow the world to go up in nuclear flames.” |