This post will be an ongoing commentary on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with future entries based on Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) as well as other relevant but hard to locate information, some of it first hand. Often an interesting story splashes on the front page of newspapers but then disappears soon after. In this post called Reflections, hope to track what happens to these stories.
The Exclusion Zone
April 1, 2022 (Updated April 4, 2022)
The nuclear power station at Chernobyl first came on line on September 26, 1977. By February, 1986 there were four reactors with two more in the construction stages. On April 25th of that year, Reactor 4 was shut down for maintenance as the workers prepared a safety test. The test was run on the late shift for some reason, but the workers on that shift were not as well trained as those who worked during the day, and this limited expertise contributed to the problem.
A forgotten toy is lying on the windowsill of an abandoned kindergarten in Chernobyl. Photo credit: Lena Meyer (iStock.)
Routine events took an unexpected turn and at 1:23 a.m. the following day, the roof of Reactor 4 was blown off by a blast with an immense fireball that lit up the night sky. The Soviet Union quickly covered up the blast, while quietly evacuating 350,000 residents. If it weren’t for an employee at a Swedish nuclear plant 685 miles away whose shoes set off radiation alarms two days later as he returned to his workstation after a bathroom break, it might have been even longer before the world understood what had happened. But during those 48 hours of silence, the radioactive cloud had drifted into another country.
“Considered history’s worst nuclear accident, the Chernobyl disaster killed 31 people directly, including 28 workers and firefighters who died of acute radiation poisoning during the cleanup. Experts believe it likely caused thousands of premature cancer deaths, though the exact number is disputed. To this day, the area around the plant remains so contaminated that it is officially closed off to human habitation.”
While not the “China syndrome,” the events that day were as close to a worst case scenario as possible, According to History.com, Chernobyl is “Considered history’s worst nuclear accident, the Chernobyl disaster killed 31 people directly, including 28 workers and firefighters who died of acute radiation poisoning during the cleanup. Experts believe it likely caused thousands of premature cancer deaths, though the exact number is disputed. To this day, the area around the plant remains so contaminated that it is officially closed off to human habitation.”
Control room of the DUGA radar array site in Chernobyl Exclusion Zone of Alienation. Photo credit: Robert Ruidl (iStock.)
The Russians
On February 24, 2022, as Russian forces surged across the borders of Ukraine and particularly southward from Belarus, capturing the power station at Chernobyl was on the top of their “to-do” list. Before long, shelling in the area allegedly from Russian tanks set part of the nuclear facility on fire. Meanwhile, the tanks churned the dirt up around the plant as other units dug in and encamped in the nearby Red Forest. Little did they know that the radiation levels were rising because of their activity (Sky Newsreports that thei radiation monitors made in the 1950s did not work.) Most of the soldiers were teenage conscripts who were not even alive when the reactor at Chernobyl blew up and likely knew very little about the facility and its history. In any event, they were not outfitted in the February chill with personal protective equipment. The primary concern to these recruits was to stay warm and not get shot.
However, these young recruits were unknowingly exposed to hazards they could never dream of. One conscript in a “particularly ill-advised incident . . .handled a source of cobalt-60 at one waste storage site with his bare hands, according to Valeriy Simyonov, the site’s chief safety engineer.” Said Simyonov: “He exposed himself to so much radiation in a few seconds that it went off the scales of a Geiger counter. It was not clear what happened to the soldier.
There also seems to have been a subsequent fire which would have exposed the Russian soldiers around the plant to radioactive smoke (ibid.). Said Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s former president: “Nuclear smoke is not limited by borders. It can reach Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and even Great Britain. The danger of nuclear contamination of Europe is very high, while Russia continues this war . . .”
The three variables in determining the cumulative hazardous–and potentially lethal–dose of radiation are time, distance and shielding. These soldiers were iin place for a month within the radioactive zone itself with no shielding. What do you think their odds are?
The Red Forest Zone
There are at least two Exclusion Zones based on the type and amount of radioactivity that contaminated the environment around the facility. Also a variable of potency is the half life or decay of the radioactive material. The outer zone is fairly back to normal and available to residents (including properly protected tourists.) The inner Red Forest Zone comprizing four square miles will not be habitable for 20,000 years according to National Geographic Magazine. While wildlife is returning to this zone, it is still deadly as hundreds Russians are now discovering.
“More than 30 years on, scientists estimate the zone around the former plant will not be habitable for up to 20,000 years”
Reports from the Ukraine say that “several hundred” Russian soldiers with radiation poisoning were being evacuated from Chernobyl by bus during the last two days back to Belarus and the Belarusian Radiation Medicine Center in Gomel. Pravda (in this case a Ukranian newspaper vis-à-vis Russian) claims that seven busloads of soldiers presemably sick and dying were transported in the same group several days ago.
Radiation poisoning
Fever, headache, weakness and fatigue, nausea and diarrhea are early symptoms of radiation poisoning and also dozens, if not a hundred other issues with various degrees of significance as well. However, when the hair of these soldiers began to fall out in clumps, or they developed sores in their mouth and the vomiting and diarrhea turned bloody, something was definitely wrong. If the poisoning is serious enough, you die.
Conscripts
According to the Daily Mail, “One quarter of Russia’s army is made up of conscripts aged 18-27, disproportionately from poorer backgrounds where families are unable to obtain legal letters or doctors’ notes excusing their sons from battle.” They are drafted for one-year of service with a reserve commitment to follow, and a Russian male, can go to prison for twice that long if he tries to avoid this service. At any given time there are about 260,000 conscripts in the million man Russian military.
The Russian conscripts fighting in Ukraine have been lied to repeatedly. We’ve all seen scenes on the television of homesick Russian conscripts in tears, being comforted by Ukraine mothers. Other Ukranians lend the conscripts their cellphones so that they can call their parents. In no way can these young men be called soldiers, yet alone warriors.
Rest in peace
We don’t know his name, but Igor or Sergei or Dimitri, or Ivan died yesterday from radiation poisoning. He was the first Russian in this campaign to die of radiation poisoning as far as we currently know.
His last know whereabouts were the Red Forest Zone.1
Abandoned rusty Trucks in the backyard of Police Station – Pripyat, Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, Ukraine. Photo credit: Diegograndi (iStock.)
Postscript
One of the more challenging tasks for Ukraine is to remove the many mines that the 1,500 Russian troops planted. At this point, mines have gone off killing one person and numerous animals according to Sky News. Many of the trenches dug by the Russian conscripts were in the Red Forest Zone and this stirred up radioactive dust. Ukrainians at Chernobyl reportedly counted 10,000 trucks driving through the restricted zones during the five day period that the Russians evacuated, and there are concerns that the radiation has spread to Belarus.
An Unholy Alliance Between Church and State
April 2, 2022
The alliance was inevitable. Vladimir Putin needed the cooporation of the Russian Orthodox Church to bestow its blessing not just on his invasion of Ukraine, but on his vision for a restoration of the Russian empire, not the Soviet Union. Putin needed religious leaders to assure the Russian people that Putin was indeed a very moral man, a spiritual man, a chosen one, a committted Christian doing God’s work in Ukraine and elsewhere. Says Archimandrite (Abbot) Tikhon Shevkunov who personally knows Putin very well: “Vladimir Putin is indeed an Orthodox Christian believer… who confesses, takes Communion and realises his responsibility to God, . . .“Vladimir [is] placed at the head of Russia by God’s will.”
On the other hand, the Russian Orthodox Church was attracted to Putin because of Putin’s values; standing firm against homosexuality, liberal democracy, against a free press and also against a decadent West. Putin is also much less welcoming of refugees. While Europe was accepting hundreds of thousands of refugees (or more) each year for the past few years, Russia has only accepted 39 migraants in 2016; 33 in 2017 and 30 in 2018. The Russian Orthodox Church believes that it, the Russian Orthodox Church, itself, is the True Church, the Remnant.
So, while cars with frightened citizens are blown up by Russian T-72 tanks, while movie theaters, maternity hospitals and shelters are ruthlessly atacked, hundreds of civilians executed with their hands tied together and thrown into unmarked, mass graves, as aid convoys are hijacked by Russian soldiers, lawless mercenaries from abroad recruited and transported to fight for Russia and dead Ukraine bodies are booby trapped with mines, the Russian Orthodox Church looks the other way. They. know that only Putin can make Russia great again. One way or the other.
“Vladimir Putin is indeed an Orthodox Christian believer… who confesses, takes Communion and realises his responsibility to God, . . .“Vladimir [is] placed at the head of Russia by God’s will.”
Archimandrite (Abbot) Tikhon Shevkunov who personally knows Putin
In this post I want to explore legends of the Russky Mir (Russian nation) as Putin sees it and what role religion plays in Putin’s plans. Also, as more evangelicals in America believe the lie that only Donald Trump can save America, you should be able to note important parallels between these two authoritarian leaders as well as the subservience of religious leaders to their national leader’s bidding in each of the two countries. But please, don’t take my word for it, nor the word of some anonymous troll on Twitter, or someone on 12chan or a podcast from a person you never heard of. Reseach these facts, assertions, and conclusions on your own. Tell me if I’m wrong.
Russian history in a nutshell
Patriarch Kirill in golden ceremonial mantle. Photo credit: Alexey Borodin (iStock.)
For our purposes, Russian history began in 862 A.D. when Norse explorers from Sweden and perhaps what is now Finland formed the Rus’ state as they explored rivers and built settlements along prospective trade routes which led deep into the remnants of the Eastern Roman Empire. These Vikings from the North married with Slavs, and tribes from the Baltic and also ancestors of the Finns and established a nation called Kievan Rus’. By 1240 A.D., the territory controlled by these Norsemen included Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Moldova, and parts of Romania and latter day Poland. But the core of this fledging empire consisted of Ukraine, Belarus (aka White Russia) and today’s Western Russia.
A dynasty was established and territorial expansion followed.
The next milestone was when Vladimir the Great converted to Christianity in 988 A.D., only 66 years before the split between Rome and Constantinople. Because his conversion introduced Christianity to Kievan Rus’, he is often referred to as St. Vladimir. The converts that followed St. Vladimir saw themselves as the descendants of Japeth, one of the three sons of Noah.
In 1147 A.D., we have the first mention of Moscow, though archeological artifacts indicate that the area was inhabited as far back as the Stone Age. Kievan Rus’ as an independent power fell under the hoofbeats of the Mongol invasion of 1237-1240.
Old vintage retro ancient map. Part of Europe- Crimea, Ukraine, and far western Russia. Credit: Dovapi (iStock.)
Centuries later, Peter the Great and Catherine the Great saw the first Russian Empire take root which survived Napoleon’s invasion and became a major European power following Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow in October 1812.
In the twentieth century the world witnessed the birth of Bolshevism and Russia became the heart of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The surrounding territories became republics in a Russian orbit or vassal states of a sort.
Putin’s faith
Although he doesn’t talk much about it, Vladimir Putin is claimed to have converted to Christianity. According to Bishop Tikhon, the priest who is said to have wittnessed Putin’s conversion to Christianity: “Vladimir Putin is indeed an Orthodox Christian believer… who confesses, takes Communion and realises his responsibility to God . . .Vladimir [is] placed at the head of Russia by God’s will.”
Patriarch Kirill
In January 2019, many Ukranians who could no longer in good conscience be part of the Russian Orthodox Church because of the Russian annexation of Crimea and the occupation of the eastern Ukranian border with Russia formed their own Orthodox Church in defiance of the religious authorities in Moscow and St. Petersburg. These Ukraine dissidents formed the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and the head of the overarching Orthodox Church, itself (Patriarch of Constantinople Bartholomew I) recognized it forthwith. This recognition also severed any influence that the Russian Church might claim over Ukraine. But Patriarch Kirill nevertheless whispered in President Putin’s ear.
Georgiy Alexandrovich Shevkunov, the bishop who led Putin to Christ, and the one who communes him and hears his confession. Licensed under Creative Commons. Original source https://vk.com/album-97729_231158874 (Credit Александр Филиппов.). Used with permission
Almost everytime Church and State mix, things end badly for the Church. It becomes persecuted, or parishioners leave in droves because politics from the pulpit is not satisfying to them. Some rock solid believers are driven from their church because of their secular politics and opinions. Or, the Church is compromised with political intrigue and loses sight of its first love. We see this happening in our country, today. In my half a century of experience as a born again, Spirit filled believer, I’ve had countless Christians approach me concerned whether I would or would not vote democrat or republican, for Clinton or for Trump, whether I get my news from CNN or Fox, but only one person in my life ever thought to ask me if I was saved. That tells me where people’s priorities are. But back to Patriarch Kirill.
Even as Russian tanks were churning the mud headed South from the Ukraine, Belarus border, Patriarch Kirill said:
“God forbid that the present political situation in fraternal Ukraine so close to us should be aimed at making the evil forces that have always strived against the unity of Rus’ and the Russian Church, gain the upper hand. God forbid that a terrible line stained with the blood of our brothers should be drawn between.”
http://www.patriarchia.ru/en/db/text/5904398.html
Yet, that line (presumably the border between Russian and Ukraine and Belarus and Ukraine) was indeed stained as Russian soldiers killed innocent civilians and were themselves in turn killed.
Furthermore, the Russian Patriarch makes clear his belief that Ukranians are Russian, regardless of what they might call themselves, and therefore subject to Russia’s whim–Putin’s and his. He adds:
“When I say “Russian,” I use the ancient expression from “A Tale of Bygone Years” – Where from has the Russian land come, the land which now includes Russia and Ukraine and Belarus and other tribes and peoples. That the Lord may protect the Russian land against external enemies, against internal disorders, that the unity of our Church may strengthen and that by God’s mercy all the temptations, diabolical attacks, provocations may retreat and that our devout people in Ukraine may enjoy peace and tranquillity – these are our prayers today.”
His Holiness Patriarch Kirill calls on the faithful to pray for peace and unity of the Church 27 February 2022 year 13:20
The city of Kyiv is highly symbolic for both Putin and Kirill because of its connection to Vladimir I, the medieval ruler mentioned above of Kievan Rus’ — a territory which included parts of both current-day Ukraine and Russia — who converted to Christianity in around 988.
So, according to this logic, “what’s mine is mine and what’s yours is mine.” Russia belongs to Russia and Ukraine belongs to Russia. NATO needs to back off, Putin would argue, because this is an internal Russian affair, even though ethnic Russians comprise only a minority in Ukraine (17.3% in the 2001 census.) This is not one country invading another according to Russia. There is no country called Ukraine as far as Putin is concerned. On the eve of this war, Putin said “Ukraine has never had its own authentic statehood. There has never been a sustainable statehood in Ukraine . . .”
Put another way, Georg Michels, professor of history at University of California Riverside writes:
“According to the now-dominant Russian nationalist view, Vladimir was the founding father of the first Russian state and the Russian Orthodox Church. State and church formed a productive symbiosis and Kiev (or Kyiv) became the cradle of Russian civilization . . . Putin considers Vladimir the savior of Russia, To him, Kyiv and Crimea, where Vladimir was baptized, are sacred Russian lands.”
The “savior of Russia.” Could that mantle of savior now be descending on another person named Vladimir? One last reference from President Putins famous 2021 essay on the Russian Empire:
“Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space. Since time immemorial, the people living in the south west of what has historically been Russian land [i.e., Ukraine] have called themselves Russians and Orthodox Christians.”
So, President Putin is saying that Ukraine has no political life apart from Russian and Patriarch Kirill is telling him that Ukraine has no spiritual legitimacy, either.
Holy water
Holy water is found in both the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox churches for ritualistic blessing of people, homes, boats for fishermen, etc. In the Anglican and Episcopal churches it is called font water. But again, it is for the purpose of blessings. Other Protestant denominations do not in general get involved with holy water, save Lutherans for the sacrament of baptism, though I’m not sure it is considered consecrated in any sense.
So, holy water is designed for good things, right? Yet, under the auspices of the Russian Orthodox Church, however, Putin found new uses for holy water. Says Juilet Samuel:
“Faced with the need to legitimise his rule and consolidate power, he turned to the Church and the useful hodgepodge of imperialist, autocratic ideas floating around Russian military and intellectual circles. It wasn’t long before his regime was televising footage of priests sprinkling holy water over missiles bound for Syria.”
For the life of me, I do not understand this. Is there a prayer that is recited as they “consecrate” these horrible weapons? “Lord, please kill, cripple and maim our adversaries with this wondrous piece of technology?” I’m not so naive as to not understand the unfortunate need for certain weapons systems, but to ask divine blessings ceremoniously on their use?
Church and state, part II
There is another problem with Church and State. If a national leader is being manipulated by people who call themselves Christians, how can anyone test a proported divine revelation? If a religious leader that Putin respects says “I had a vision where God said we should attack the West,” then how do you refute that? And what if that leader acts on this “prophecy?“
There is much more information available, but unfortunately I don’t have time for a scholarly treatise on it at the moment. I hope you found this post a bit enlightening.
Masyanya
While researching Russia, I can across a favorite cartoon series in Russia. The cartoonist (Oleg Igorevich Kuvaev) is currently in trouble in Russia for an antigovernment cartoon.
Masyanya has a boyfriend named Hrûndelʼ (Хрюндель) which means “to grunt. Another regular character in the series is Lohmatıĭ (Лохматый) called Shaggy. Lohmatıĭ is a Ukranian.
Finns seek NATO membership, Swedes not far behind?
Map of current thirty NATO countries (Canada and U.S. not shown.) Courtesy of NATO.
Repeated warnings from Russia and hints at destruction from Russian politicians are not dissuading Finns from what seems to be a certain application to join NATO. Public opinion polls in Finland and Sweden suggest that if Finland does join NATO, then Sweden’s application will immediately follow (or both countries may petition for membership at the same time.)
A solid majority of Finnlanders (61%) support NATO membership for Finland as do members of the Finnish parliament (95-14.) With each week of more terror bombings and atrocities in Ukraine, the majority climbs even higher.
As far as Sweden goes,
“According to a poll by Kantor-Sifo, 59 percent of respondents would support joining Nato if Finland were also to join, while only 17 percent would be against joining. The remaining 24 percent were undecided.
When Finland’s membership was stripped out, the support for joining Nato dropped to 41, with 26 percent against and 33 percent undecided.”
FInland has maintained neutrality (more or less) as has Austria since the end of World War II. Sweden has asserted neutrality for the past two centuries.
If Putin’s fiasco has had any success, it has been to drive Finland and Sweden off the fence and to the West. Alexander Stubb, the Finnish Prime Minister from 2014-2015 puts it this way:
“The Finns think that if Putin can slaughter his sisters, brothers and cousins in Ukraine, as he is doing now, then there is nothing stopping him from doing it in Finland.”
In fact, news reports today, April 12, suggest that Putin has plan for Finland. According to the Daily Mail:
“Russian heavy weapons including missile systems have been seen moving towards the border with Finland, hours after Russia warned its northern neighbour against joining NATO.
An unconfirmed video uploaded last night appears to show two Russian coastal defence missile systems moving along a road on the Russian side of the border that leads to Helsinki.
The missile systems, which were seen driving past a sign to the Finnish capital, are thought to be thK-300P Bastion-P mobile coastal defence system, designed to take out surface ships up to and including aircraft carrier battle groups.”
This may be a bluff, of course designed to sweat the Finns. But isn’t this is how the Ukraine war began, with heavy Russian weapon systems moving to the Ukraine border as Ukraine contemplated NATO membership?
Finland (and Sweden if they choose to request membership as well) will enter a very vulnerable period from the date of their applications for membership until the date they are accepted. It’s difficult to predict what this president of Russia might do, and that could be everything or nothing. Fortunately, integration with other European military forces should be fairly easy since both countries have participated in NATO exercises in the past.
Finland has committed to purchasing 64 F-35 fighters from the Pentagon in a deal worth $9.4 billion. Photo credit: Air Force Staff Sgt. Jarrod Vickers(DoD photo.)
Broken arrow incident?
(Updated April 15, 2022)
According to History.com, a broken arrow is used by the U.S. military “to describe any incident in which a nuclear weapon is lost, stolen or inadvertently detonated.” Altogether, there have been thirty such broken arrow incidents in U.S. annals. There is no way to accurately know the incident history of other nuclear powers.
The Daily Mail ran a story today about the recently sunken flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet the Moskva that was somehow missed by other worldwide media (including OSINT sources that I frequent.) The Moskva was carrying delivery systems (e.g., Moskva’s P-1000 supersonic cruise missiles) when it submerged that are designed to be fitted to nuclear warheads. That raises the question of whether any nuclear warheads were onboard when it went down, presumably from Neptune missiles fired by the Ukrainians. The Daily Mail speculates that there likely were two such warheads. The Ukrainian claim to have sunk the ship received even more credence when last evening the Russians destroyed the Vizar plant in Kyiv that manufactures the Neptune, very possibly then a retaliatory strike. Accounting of the 510 sailors onboard the ship reveal that as many as 452 are still missing and possibly dead.
It was originally presumed that the Ukraine drone thought to be present over the Moskva was nothing more than a distraction to keep the Russian crew of the Moskva from detecting the two rapidly approaching Ukrainian Neptune missiles. However, drones can be used to guide missiles to their targets as well.
Another scenario appeared in yesterday’s Times of London and as reported in today’s Daily Mail. There was a USN P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance plane in the general area which could have provided real time feed back and intelligence to Ukrainian launch crews as well as guide the missile, itself. If so, then the U.S. Navy placed an indirect role in the destruction of the capital ship.
As of April 22, the Russians seem to be putting together a flotilla of salvage ships and recovery vessels for the likely purpose of recovering classified equipment, perhaps nuclear warheads and other sensitive equipment.
What tha’ hay?!!!
(Updated April 28, 2022)
Today, Moscow bombed Kivj as UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres was on an official visit there. Talk about optics–deliberately attacking a location where the elected representative of Planet Earth is meeting the Uraine government, trying to bring peace to the region! Was it to put pressure on him? An assassination attempt? It makes one wonder how his meeting with President Putin went?
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Sergey Lavrovv have been sabre-rattling again, threatening a nuclear strike or warning that World War III was just around the corner. If so, it’s because Russia did not respect the sovereignty of Ukraine who after being stripped of the Crimea in 2014, want nothingto do with Russia.
Does the real war begin May 9th?
(Updated April 30, 2022)
Reports from England from the BBC and elsewhere (but not yet in the American press) state that President Putin is under tremendous pressure to move Russia from a Special Military Operation status to a full war mobilization footing. If true, intelligence suggests that it may happen of May 9th. There are several reasons that the Russian Generals are requesting this.
The first has to do with the thousands of casualties that the Russian Army has sustained, and the need to keep conscripts longer than their agreed term of service, as well issue a massive call-up of new recruits to deal with Ukraine and other areas Russia seems interested in invading (including Moldova.)
Another reason is that a national emergency would give President Putin increased authoritarian power beyond what he has now, for example, to declare martial law, or suspend whatever few civil liberties still exist in Russia today.
Thirdly, a full blown war footing might make it more reasonable to resort to weapons of mass destruction on the part of Russia.
There are also real increased dangers to the West here. Each day that this conflict continues and with every success the Ukrainians achieve, every attack of a target within Russia, itself makes it that much more likely that Russian will attack marshalling points in Poland or perhaps Bulgaria. One of Poland’s senior ranking generals warned Boris Johnson not to boast that Poland is funneling heavy weapons from NATO to Ukraine, because it invites a Russian preemptive attack.
Also, as retired General Wesley Clark noted on the eve of Russia’s invation of Ukraine, every single Russian military exercises ends with the launch of nuclear warheads. In other words, this is their training formula and the most likely conclusion of any military action. NATO members are being warned to take the threat of a nuclear war seriously.
Bless the beasts and the children
(Updated April 30, 2022)
Something that should enrage animal rights groups is the Russian invaders’ apparent proclivity to kill Ukranian livestock, either to feed their army (understandable) or just out of wanton cruelty (not justifiable.). Farmers who are not being shipped hundreds of miles into the heartland of Russia for who knows what purpose or fate are returning to their farmsteads to find the carcasses of dozens of cattle with bullets in their brains lying in fields which have been mined to discourage planting crops in the future.
Gone in Sixty Seconds?
(Updated May 3, 2022)
Hosts and guests on the popular Russian television program 60 Minutes have been stirring up the nuclear pot recently, noting that London, Paris and Berlin could be destroyed within 200 seconds of the launch of Russia’s Satan II missile which carries up to fifteen nuclear warheads. According to the Daily Mail, “It comes as ex-Nato chief Richard Sherriff warned the West must ‘gear itself up’ for a ‘worst case scenario’ war with Russia in Ukraine, amid reports the Russian president could use the country’s victory day parade on May 9 to declare ‘all-out war’ on its neighbour.” Yet, neither Richard Sherriff, Boris Johnson, nor Liz Truss or others have mentioned the launch of nuclear misiles in any of their public comments.
What was unusual in this particular program was a spirited debate where the co-host Evgeny Popov tries to balance the belligent rhetoric of his wife Olga Skabeyeva who hosts the program with him. He reminds her–and the Russian audience–that price of destroying England would be the destruction of Russia.
An intercontinental ballistic missile target launches from the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site in the Marshall Islands, March 25, 2019. It was successfully intercepted by two long-range, ground-based interceptors launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. Photo credit: Lisa Simunaci (DOD photo.)
Despite the billions of dollars over the past decades spend by the U.S. on the “on again, off again” Strategic Defense Initiative (“Star Wars”) proposed by the Reagan Administration, and the reseach programs which followed, the results have been disappointing. More recently, private companies such as SpaceX are being consulted. On a good a the U.S. has been able to intercept a single missile flying at subsonic speed. Neutralizing twenty hostile missiles with evasive capabilities approaching the U.S. simultaneously from different directions at speeds of Mach 8 (or greater) is a completely different, unscripted matter and is a capability that is decades away from now. Likely by the time a defense could be developed, the threat would be different as well.
More recently, Russian media apologist Dmitry Kiselyov presented on the air two different scenarios where Russian missiles could destroy Britain. One involves a radioactive “tidal wave” more than a thousand feet high engulfing Britain, caused by a Poseidon missile launched from a submarine. A day or so after the video was released, Ireland complained that such a outcome would destroy their country as well. Said Irish Member of the European Parliament Billy Kelleher: “There is no free speech in #Russia so these statements are being made with Putin’s approval. Time to tell Russian Government that this wild language is simply unacceptable to us.”
The propaganda videos are avaiable here. In this case, a Russian government spokesperson tried to downplay some of the rhetoric aired on Russian television, but the purpose seems to be to create a hysteria in the West (particularly Britain.). Usually Russia reserves its threats and scorn for the U.S., but in this case Boris Johnson and Liz Truss seem to have caught their attention.
The God of the seas takes revenge
(Updated May 6, 2022)
As I write this, the Russian Frigate Makarov, a relatively new, 409 foot warship is burning in the Black Sea, said to have been struck with a Ukraine Neptune missile. Oleksiy Goncharenko, head of the council of Odesa announced the attack cryptically on his Telegram account this morning:
“The frigate Admiral Makarov was laid down in February 2012 at the Yantar shipyard in Kaliningrad and launched in September 2015.
“And in 2022, when he took part in the murder of Ukrainians, he was struck by the God of the Seas. He hasn’t set off after Moskva yet, but the trouble has begun.”
SEVASTOPOL, RUSSIA – July 28, 2019: Russian frigate Admiral Makarov – a third frigate of the Admiral Grigorovich class of the Russian Navy on the parade at Russian Navy Day. Photo credit: Dianov Boris (Shutterstock.). EDITORIAL USE ONLY.
Meanwhile, both Russian aircraft and naval vessels are enroute to try to save the ship before any other Ukraine misiles or drones sink the ship completely like they did the Moskva a week ago.
It’s seeming more and more likely that the Claims about the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov being stuck by Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles off the Coast of Odessa is True, multiple Rescue Ships and Aircraft are reportedly in the Area with U.S Surveillance Drones keeping eyes on it. pic.twitter.com/JTuAKr1VEd
Bono and the Edge visited Kyiv today at the invitation of Ukraine President Zelensky. According to RollingStone magazine:
“The people in Ukraine are not just fighting for your own freedom, you are fighting for all of us who love freedom,” Bono told the audience, which included soldiers. “We pray that you will enjoy some of that peace soon.”
According to the Irish Times, Bono cheered the crowd by saying:
“…of all the great cities and towns in the world, including Tokyo, Sydney, Chicago as well as ‘Athlone and Kinnegad’, there was ‘nowhere in the whole world that we would rather be in today than in the great city of Kyiv’.
Bono and the Edge of U2 played such favorites as “With or Without You,” “Desire,” “Angel of Harlem,” “Vertigo” and a rendition of Ben E. King’s “Stand By Me” according to Rolling Stone, and they were joined by musicians currently serving in the Ukranian armed forces.
Also visiting Ukraine on this Mothers Day was Dr. Jill Biden, who had a heartwarming visit with the First Lady of Ukraine, herself a mother.
President @ZelenskyyUa invited us to perform in Kyiv as a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian people and so that’s what we’ve come to do. — Bono and The Edge #StandWithUkraine
So, the Greek Orthodox church in the city near me had their annual Greek Cultural Festival. As you might expect, they had Greek crafts, wore Greek costumes, served Greek food, and featured Greek music. The band was really good as a matter of fact! There was a raised, platform perhaps half the area of a basketball court for people who wanted to dance. Of course, it was a magnet for children, from those who could barely walk to those who were perhaps 5-7 years of age. These youngsters who were mostly girls danced as if no one was watching. Complete innocent abandon. The very young just weaved unsteadily to the music, stomped their feet and occasionally fell to the floor. The older children understood that the adults did things with their arms and hands as well as their feet, but it was uncertain to these first graders just what it was that they did. All in all, it was very entertaining. Many of the children were likely first generation Americans, because I heard their mothers calling to them or scolding them in Greek.
As I watched the children dance, I thought these Greek children might easily have been Ukrainian children, and these mom’s from Kyiv instead of Kalamaria. And I wondered whether President Putin would have been as amused as I watching these small, innocent children enjoy a moment to themselves as the music moved them. No sirens, no explosions or flying glass.
How could anyone human not find this precious, and if so, how could they shower a neighboring country with a “rain” of terror that would threaten the lives of children and mothers such as these? How could Putin, or Bush, or anyone inflict such harm on population centers?
How?
“A time to kill and a time to heal, a time to tear down and a time to build. . .“
(Updated October 28, 2022)
In Ecclesiastes 3, the Bible says:
“There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens:
a time to be born and a time to die, a time to plant and a time to uproot, a time to kill and a time to heal, a time to tear down and a time to build, a time to weep and a time to laugh, a time to mourn and a time to dance, a time to scatter stones and a time to gather them, a time to embrace and a time to refrain from embracing, a time to search and a time to give up, a time to keep and a time to throw away, a time to tear and a time to mend, a time to be silent and a time to speak, a time to love and a time to hate, a time for war and a time for peace.”
Ecclesiastes 3:1-8
This is the season for killing and for tearing down, at least in Europe. Countless Russian soldiers, poorly equipped are being killed around the clock as Ukraine’s offensive continues. The Moscow Timesspeaks of soldiers having to purchase their own equipment and other reputable sources speak of conscripts having to dig trenches with their bare hands. Poor (and very brief training) means that many young boys will die in the days ahead. Yet Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church and discussed above, has told his followers that “sacrifice in the course of carrying out your military duty washes away all sins.” Whether that assurance is any consolation to the military dead and their families who mourn is something I cannot answer.
Yet, many Ukrainians are dying too, as apartment buildings and refugee convoys are targeted and as Russian soldiers abandon Ukrainian cities they once occupied. And who know how many other civilians may freeze to death this winter.
A time to tear down: Eastern European countries are tearing down stone and steel edifices of other times. Poland, for example, just tore down four monuments on Thursday to “Red Army soldiers who died during World War Two, as historically strained relations between Warsaw and Moscow hit new lows due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” That from Reuters.
Soldiers sculptures next to monument in the area of Soviet Military Cemetery in Warsaw, Poland. Photo credit: Fotokon (Shutterstock.) Editorial use only. Photo not intended to portray a monument recently destroyed.
Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Czechia are other countries that have also revisited the past in the context of present Russian aggression against Ukraine, removing or scheduling to remove their reminders that they once fought with Russia against a common foe.
Meanwhile, in Norway, cities are tearing up friendship agreements with Russian cities, also in protest over the war. Tromsø, for example, which put on ice its relations with its sister cities in Russia (Murmansk, Arkhangelsk and Nadym.) In the city of Kirkenes, Norway, some forty to fifty people turned out (and some turned away) recently for a solemn ceremony commemorating the Red Army’s liberation of the city from the Germans during World War II. Russian Consul General Nikolai Konygin was invited to speak, but when he took the podium, half of the people gathered (the half who came with Ukrainian flags) rudely turned their backs on him, while the other half listened attentively and politely. Kirkenes, in far north Norway, has barely 3,500 residents, including approximately 500 Russians who arrived recently. Hmmm.
If the typical, decent, warm-hearted people of Europe at the grassroots level are troubled over the war in Ukraine to the extent that the people in Warsaw and Kirkenes are, then there are clearly cleavages that will take a good deal of time to heal. But that’s another generation and another verse in Ecclesiastes.
Unspeakable horrors as winter settles in
(Updated November 28, 2022)
Today, a Russian MP had a grim threat for Ukraine:
Russian MP Andrei Gurulyov says his country will “finish off” Ukraine’s power grid and then target its banking system.
“If we bomb the centre of their banking operations, they won’t be able to transfer anything anywhere, cards won’t work and people won’t get their paychecks” pic.twitter.com/yUHClLppfs
Also this week are numerous reports of sexual violence conducted again Ukrainian civilians as well as POWs. One such UN investigatory report can be found here (scan QR code at right.)
Preparing for the second year of war
(Updated December 21, 2022)
At the moment, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine is in Washington, preparing for his message to a Joint Session of Congress at 7:30 p.m. this evening which I will eagerly watch, observing members of Congress, Repubican and Democrats for their warmth and enthusiasm or their aloofness and disinterest.
White House photo. Made vailable under Creative Commons.
This is a big moment for Ukraine and with the exception of a number of Republicans, some who refused to stand for Zelenskyy and others who completely skipped the event, the President of Ukraine seems to have passed the test and acquitted himself.
Perhaps the impetus for the visit came with President Putin’s visit to Belarus. There are increasing worries that Russia plans to open a second front in February, swiftly striking with a large number of refitted forces from Russia and also Belarus with the objective of capturing Kyiv. If Belarus President Akexander Lukashenko objects, he might be assassinated according to some observers.
Russia is also creating a new Army group in the NW corner of Russia. Two days ago Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shigou visited the area and said:
. . . given NATO’s desire to increase its military potential near the Russian borders, as well as to expand the alliance by adding Finland and Sweden, it is necessary to take retaliatory measures and to create an appropriate grouping of troops in the northwest of Russia.”
Shmigou misses the point that if Russia had not invaded Ukraine, then Finland and Sweden would not have thought to joint NATO. Russia’s own, unilateral actions fostered this action on these two countries.
Meanwhile, Russia is the target of sabotage as old fields, airports, and naval docks are plagued wsith
mysterious fires and explosions.
Some odds and ends
(Updated December 23, 2022)
In an unusual but ominous incident, last night about ten masked men rushed the Finish embassy in Mscow and threw sledgehammers over the fence. These sledgehammers, used by the Warner group to fatally bludgeon their enemies to death, are no doubt a warning to the Finns. For the last month, numerous Ukrainian embassies in Europe have been receiving “eyes” in their mail. The tissue seems to be from animals and investigations are continuing, but this represents an unhuman cruelty nonetheless. Meanwhile, President Putin continues to speak benevolently towards Ukraine, referring to Russia as an older brother. But I’m sure that I am not the only one among people in the world who are neither Russian nor Ukrainian who have to wonder that if this is how Russians treat their brothers, how would Russians treat their enemies? These is such a thing as tough love, but that typically does not apply to kidnapping children, torture, rape, etc.
Finally, Dmitry Rogozin, the former and controversial head of the Russian space program Roscosmos was injured in an explosion while celebrating his 59th birthday in Ukraine. He received shrapnel wounds to his shoulder, and according to other reports, to his butt as well. Not everyone will be mourning, however, as Rogozin’s unprofessionalism did not earn him many friends at NASA. In fact, the partnership between Roscosmos and NASA is one of the few still successful ventures between Russian and America (no thanks, apparently, to Rogozin.)
Meanwhile, Russian Television’s message to the West is that next Christmas (2023), we will be eating our pets. Who says stuff like that?
After a frustrating debate over whether Germany would send Leopard tanks to Ukraine or allow other NATO countries with Leopard tanks manufactured by Germany to do the same, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz finally agreed. The British are already sending Challenger II tanks to Ukraine and some American Abrams tanks will wind up there this year as well. With Leopard tanks from Poland, Spain and other NATO and friendly nations, about 200 tanks should wind up there eventually.
Air Force airmen assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron unload an Army M1A2 Abrams main battle tank off a C-17A Globemaster III aircraft at an undisclosed location within the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. Photo credit: Air Force Master Sgt. Matthew Plew (DOD photo.)
Germany has understandably been a fairly reluctant ally when it comes to NATO sending weapons to Ukraine. Images of Wehrmacht Panzers under Heinz Guderian crossing Russian frontiers in World War II continue to haunt German policymakers. The Russian Ambassador to Germany played on these concerns earlier today in his reaction to the news. Said Ambassador Sergei Nechaev: “Battle tanks marked with the German cross will again be sent to ‘the Eastern front,’ which inevitably will lead to the death of not only Russian soldiers, but the civilian population, too,” according to CNN.
Continuing:
“This extremely dangerous decision brings the conflict to a new level of confrontation and runs counter to German politicians’ statements about FRG’s [Federal Republic of Germany] reluctance to be involved in such. . .”
“Unfortunately, this happens over and over again. Yet again, we can see that just like its closest partners, Germany is not interested in a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis, has its heart set on its permanent escalation and the unlimited pumping of the Kyiv regime with more and more deadly weapons. ‘Red lines’ are a thing of the past,”
The obvious solution (exit strategy) is for Russia to abandon it’s hunger for Ukranian territory (including the Crimea) and after withdrawing, pay necessary reparations and submit itself to a war crimes tribunal. Whenever a country (including the U.S.) invades and occupies another country uninvited, there are risks and consequences. Russia is not the victim here.
(Added January 29, 2023)
Ukranian tank crews are currently enroute to Britain to learn how to operate Challenger II tanks. Similar moves will involve training for Leopard and Abrams crews very soon. I’m not a battlefield strategist, but I understand that tanks, even the most advanced models, can be sitting ducks to enemy aircraft if the tanks are not supported with sufficient air cover, something that the Ukrainians are not capable of mustering with their meager, outdated Air Force. There are rumors about the possiblilty of introducing Western aircraft to Ukranian skies to protect the assets, and the F-16 is the logical choice. They would necessarily need to be piloted by Ukranian airmen, else the conflict would certainly spill over into other countries. As it is, Russian has been trying to make the case that Western military aide has caused NATO to become co-belligerents in this conflict.
(Added January 31, 2023)
The U.S., England, and Germany have all come out against sending aircraft to Ukraine. This causes a conundrum. Russian nuclear doctrine authorizes a first strike if Russia is losing a conventional war and if there is an existential threat to Russian territory. NATO is concerned that certain long range missiles (and strike aircraft) could wind up attacking Russian soil, even if that land (such as the Crimea) is internationally recognized to be Ukranian. Russia had further annexed more Ukranian territory last fall, but is in danger of being pushed out of whatever fothold they once achieved. Would this lead to a Russian first strike? And as I mentioned above, our first line tanks would be sitting ducks to Russian air attacks without air cover of their own.
I was in an Atlantic Council webinar last Spring when (Retired) General Wesley Clark stated that every Russian military exercise it conducts ends with the simulated launch of nuclear missiles. That does not make their use imminent or a foregone conclusion in this conflict, but it is revealing as far as how Russia perceives their use.
Meanwhile, former PM Boris Johnson says that President Putin personally threatened him with a missile attack (something that the Kremlin calls a lie.)
Also, I’ve been reading a book called “A Frozen Hell: The Russo-Finnish Winter War of 1939-1940” by William Trotter. I’m amazed at the similarities between that war and Russia’s current war in Ukraine.
Back in 1939, Russia was the largest country in the world in terms of land mass. But they saw a threat from the relatively tiny country of Finland which bordered Russia. Today, Russia is still the largest country in the world in terms of land mass. But they claim there is a threat from the relatively tiny country of Ukraine which borders Russia. Back then, Russia invaded Finland, but blamed the war on the Finns. Today, Russia invaded Ukraine but the say the Ukrainians are to blame. In 1939, thousands upon thousands of ill-prepared and ill-trained Russians were sent senselessly to their deaths in human waves. That is happening again today in Ukraine. The Finns fought valiantly against Russia, but they didn’t have the resources that Russia had, and help from the West arrived too late. We are also seeing this characteristic play out today as well. The tank may arrive to late, and who knows about the planes.
Back to the future
It’s fairly clear that 2023 will be even more dangerous than 2022. Days after announcing that the U.S., Germany and England will send tanks to Ujraine, the U.S. announced announced that they will be sending Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), a new weapon in the U.S. inventory with twice the range of the HIMARs. No doubt Vladimir Putin can picture these American weapons killing Russian soldiers and striking those parts of Ukraine that he has carved out for himself. His humiliation seems to have no end. But the casus belli (occcasion for war) is not about British tanks or American missiles. It’s about yet another invasion of a fledging democracy by an unbending, unrelenting and unmerciful leader in Russia with designs on other countries, much like Joseph Stalin before him. In fact, there seems to be a nostalgia in Russia of sorts at the moment as some attempt to recast the “good old days” of labor camps and mass executions under Stalin’s reign. However and returning to my point, were it not for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threatened invasion of Moldova and its province Transnistria (where Russian has military forces already), these tanks and missiles would likely be parked in warehouses or open lots in England and the U.S. and the Chancellor of German would sleep better at night knowing his tanks would not be facing Russian soldiers in the near future.
I’m also fairly certain that thousands upon thousands of gentle, concerned people around the world must wonder whether Ukraine is worth the risk of all out war. From my readings about Nazi Germany in World War II, I know that among the few who saw Adolph Hitler for what he really was, many preferred to shut their eyes in response to his policies programs reasoning “It could be worse.” And what of the Maquis in France during that period? Do they murder a German officer as resistance fighters did knowing that fifty French men women and children will be executed in retaliation? How do you justify resistance under those circumstances? Incidentally, there is an excellent television series called “A Frence Village” on Amazon Prime that deals with precisely this question.
It is President Putin who has let loose the dogs of war, not Ukraine. If the West does not come to the aid of Ukraine and resist Putin, Estonia or Latvia may be next. In other words, “it could be worse.” Much worse. The goal should be to help Russian understand it is not in their interest to attempt conquest and have them withdraw. The goal of NATO should not be to humiliate or destroy Russia.
(Added February 3, 2023)
One variation of the Pantsir missile system Photo credit: Oleg Doroshin (Shutterstock)
Of recent concern in the area of Russian behavior is the installation of the Pantsir missile system on rooftops of select buildings in Moscow. These missiles are defensive in nature, so if President Putin believes that Ukraine will or can actually launch drone, missile or aircraft attacks on Moscow, then this is certainly grounds for some analysts to question his judgment. On the other hand, under what circumstance would NATO countries fly their planes, missiles or drones to Moscow with the intent of offensive operations? Likely only if a NATO capital had been previously attacked by Russian conventional or nuclear forces first. Under this hypothesis, there is a warning here to the West of the direction Putin sees this war headed. This, then is preparation for a Retaliatory strike. A third explanation is that he is doing this to placify hawks in his regime, but there is no suggestion at the moment that this is his intent. It would be cheaper for his to just throw his more outspoken or influential critics in the Butyrka (a notorious prison in Moscow.)
Dark & disturbing thinking at the Kremlin
(Updated February 26, 2023)
“Vladimir Putin has said that Russian people may not survive in their current state as he claimed the West was trying to ‘disband’ Russia, according to news reports in the Telegraph and elsewhere. The article goes on to further quote the Russian President as saying:
The Russian president said the West wanted to divide up Russia and then control the world’s biggest producer of raw materials, a step, he said, that could well lead to the destruction of many of the peoples of Russia including the ethnic Russian majority.
Putin’s existential framing of the war allows the 70-year-old Kremlin chief to gird the Russian people for a much more deeper conflict while it also allows him much greater freedom in the types of weapons he could one day use.
The “Telegraph” does not explain what it means when it says that thbis proclamation “also allows him much greater freedom in the types of weapons he could one day use,” but it clearly refers to nuclear weapons. According to the prestigious “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists“:
In June 2020, Putin signed a decree—the Basic Principles of the Russian Federation’s State Policy in theDomain of Nuclear Deterrence—that specifies two conditions under which Russia would use nuclear weapons. The first is unsurprising: “The Russian Federation retains the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies…” But that sentence ends with an unusual statement: “… and also in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is put under threat” [emphasis added].”
It’s very likely that Putin is setting the stage for a possible first use of nuclear weapons when he says that if NATO is successful or appears to be succeeding in Ukraine, then the collapse of the Russian Federation might quickly follow, creating the existential threat that Russian would us to introduce nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere.
[Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in a threat to the West]: “Our enemies are doing just that, not wanting to understand that their goals will certainly lead to a total . . . Apocalypse. Where you forget for centuries about your former life, until the rubble ceases to emit radiation.”
Izvestia
Today, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in remarks published in the daily Izvestia.
Our enemies are doing just that, not wanting to understand that their goals will certainly lead to a total fiasco. Loss for everyone. A collapse. Apocalypse. Where you forget for centuries about your former life, until the rubble ceases to emit radiation.”
Poisoned?
(Updated March 4, 2023)
According to today’s Telegraph, “Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov is ‘seriously ill’ with kidney problems amid fears of poisoning.” Kadyrov, the current Head of the Chechen Republic has had close relationships in the past to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the past, Ramzan Kadyrov has been implicated in cases of torture and murder.
According to the Telegraph article, Kadyrov has sought out the services of a physician from the United Arab Emirates. “’Kadyrov clearly does not trust Russian doctors. There are reasons,’ he said. ‘My sources say that [problems with] kidneys are a symptom of poisoning and that’s what Kadyrov is afraid of.’”
The poison was alledgedly delivered to Kadyrov on a letter, according to Insider, which went on to say:
This is not the first poison-related incident since the start of Russia’s invasion on February 24 last year.
In March last year, Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich briefly went blind after an apparent poisoning during peace meetings with Ukrainian negotiators.“
It is unclear who sent the letter or what the toxic substance was. The reasons Kadyrov does not trust doctors associated with the Kremlin is because critics of President Putin tend to wind up dead under mysterious circumstances (often poisoned, though two have survived.) According to Insider, they include:
Pavel Antov – December 2022. Fell from a hotel window
Ravil Maganov – September 2022. Fell out of a hospital window.
Dan Rapoport- August 2022. Fell from a high rise building in Washington, D.C.
Mikhail Lesin- November 2016. Died in Washington, D.C. hotel from blunt force trauma to his head.
Boris Nemtsov- February 2015. Shot dead outside the Kremlin.
Boris Berezovsky- March 2013. Appeared to have been strangled in his home in England.
Natalia Estemirova- July 2009. Gunshot wound to the head.
Stanislav Markelov and Anastasia Baburova- January 2009. Both shot dead near the Kremlin.
Alexander Litvinenko- November 2006. Poisoned in London with polonium-210 laced tea.
Anna Politkovskaya- October 2006. Nurdered by contract killers.
Paul Klebnikov- July 2004. Murdered in drive-by shooting.
Sergei Yushenkov- April 2003. Killed with a single-shot to the chest.
Kadyrov has been supportive of Putin and has advanced even more extreme views than Russia’s President (including the belief that Poland should be invaded.) But Kadyrov has criticized the way the war in Ukraine is being prosecuted. Whether Putin is behind this, or some “Executive Action” group in the Kremlin acting without Putin’s knowledge, or another faction or perhaps Kadyrov has not been poisoned at all remains to be seen.
Ukraine pilot training program studied
The British Telgraph and the Daily Mail report that the first two Ukrainian pilots have arrived at Davis-Monthan AFB in Tuscon, AZ to familiarize themselves with the F-16, using simulators, alone, at this point. Another ten pilots are expected to arrive in the U.S. shortly. The program seeks to determine the lead time necessary to bring these MIG-29 pilots up to speed to fly F-16s.
Spades
(Updated March 5, 2023)
Various news sources from around the world have noted that Russians fighting in the area of Bakhmut have been ordered to fight in close contact with guns when ammunition is available and entrenching tools (shovels) when not. Moscow is prepared to allow many thousands of men die as they gear up their forces. This is a time-tested strategy that Russia has depended on in the Winter War with Finland and World War II as well. This (below) from British Intelligence:
Hackers warn Russians to take anti-radiation pills, shelter precautions
(Updated March 10, 2023)
For the third time in a month, hackers have taken over state media broadcasting and warned Russians in the Moscow and the Sverdlovsk region that Russia was under nuclear attack. According to Western reports:
Viewers and listeners were told to take potassium iodide, put on gas masks and seek shelter immediately. . .
“Those watching on television were presented with a map of Russia slowly being covered in red, from west to east, while the sound of an air raid siren was blasted out of their speakers.
‘Urgent message. There was a strike,” warned a Russian voice.
‘Urgently go to a shelter. Seal the premises. Use gas masks of all types.”
After the message was broadcast, screens displayed a black and yellow radiation warning symbol.”
There is currently no indication of whether the attacks originated in Russia, Ukraine or elsewhere. Often, such attempts at creating panic are not partisan at all, but rather just efforts by hackers who defy authority or desire to spread terror and panic.
MQ-9 Surveillance Reaper splashed in Black Sea
(Updated March 14, 2023)
A MQ-9 Reaper UAV was brought down today after a hostile encounter with two Russian Su-27 aircraft over International waters of the Black Sea (according to the U.S.) Also, according to the U.S., one of the Russian planes sprayed the U.S. aircraft with jet fuel and disabled it’s propeller. Russia has denied these accusations, and it is difficult to know just what really happened because neither side has a monopoly on the truth.
Photo credit: DOD. An MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aircraft prepares to land after a mission. The Reaper has the ability to carry both precision-guided bombs and air-to-ground missiles. (U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Brian Ferguson)
What is concerning is that some obscure future event such as this where not a single shot or munition was used and in which no one was injured or killed can be the spark that ignites a much larger conflagation. If Russia sees these craft as fair game, then all bets are off and escalation of hostilities is just a matter of time.
Russian plane gets friendly with U.S. MQ-9 seconds before collision. Photo credit: U.S. European Command.
Poland, Slovakia to send fighter aircraft to Ukraine
(Updated March 17, 2023)
Poland and Slovakia are in the process of transferring Mig-29’s to Ukraine. These two countries who have felt the boots of Russian soldiers on their backs during the post WW II occupation of Eastern Europe are among the most appreciative of their freedom and of the threat that post- communism Russia presents. These aircraft are in many ways obsolute, but given the paucity of fighter jets in Ukraine’s air force and the ingenuity of Ukranians to “MacGyver” much out of little, these aircraft will be welcome indeed to Ukranian pilots who will need no training at all to fly these.
International Criminal Court (ICC) fallout
The ICC in the past two weeks (March 17th) issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, specifically charging him with responsibility
for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022.There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).”
Putin, Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have already weighed in with Medvedev saying that any country (e.g., Germany) that arrsts the Russian President will be attacked. Adding to earlier comments, Medvedev said bluntly:
Onyx rocket. Twitter post featuring photo which seems to be a TASS credit.
‘The ICC judges got all worked up in vain. ‘Look,’ they said, ‘we’re brave, we’re not too chickenshit to raise a hand against the largest nuclear power.’ Alas, gentlemen, everyone walks under God and rockets. It’s not hard to imagine the targeted use of a hypersonic ‘Onyx’ from the North Sea from a Russian ship on the Hague courthouse,’ wrote Medvedev.”
Chickens coming home to roost?
(Updated March 31, 2023)
Chickens coming home to roost? Photo credit: csmorrell (iStock.)
Earlier in this post I discussed briefly (very briefly) the claim that Russia has as the heir to Vladimir the Great (AD 958-AD 1015.) As you might expect, Ukraine has a completely opposite narrative. As I probably also mentioned earlier, I am not personally qualified to judge the merits of either side’s historical arguments. With that caveat in mind, here is an interesting news item from last week.
According to Politico (eu) and as reported elsewhere:
NATO advisors in Ukraine?
(Updated April 12, 2023)
The recently (?) leaked trove of documents classified as top secret or above reportedly states that England, France, the U.S. the Netherlands and Latvia together have a total of 100 advisors in Ukraine. That would not be shocking if true, though Moscow would love to prove this. These personnel–if present in Ukraine–are likely logistical liaisons that are facilitating the transfer of war materials. England, according to this source, is said to have fifty personnel present which if true might allow for some SAS or SBS forces attached to the Ministry of Defense to be covertly operating.
This whole document deal seems sort of fishy. It originated on a gaming website where teenagers are more likely to hang out than adults. The first documents were produced as one member tried to impress another as juveniles might. If I had to guess, a U.S. intelligence member rightly or unlawfully brought home some hundred or so documents and his fourteen year-old gamer went through his briefcase, scanned whatever an adolescent mind might think is important, and then arbitrarily and capriciously uploaded them on occasion. Because the documents were “out there” on Discord, Telegram or 4chan as long as they were before being noticed by someone who understood the potential value of the material again suggests that something is a bit out of joint here. But if these are legitimate U.S. documents unlawfully released, then someone is going to jail (or at least get a good spanking from his dad.)
Some of the documents were laid on an English language newspaper for photographing and this newspaper clearly frames the documents themselves. If the newspaper were Pravda, we might suspect Russia as the culprit. Who besides Moscow would want to indict NATA for supplying military forces to support Ukraine. It seems that some Russophile doctored the casualty reports to make it seem that there were dozens of Ukranians killed for each Russian soldier, but who knows who actually did it? If the documents are forgeries, then why is the U.S. panicking? Then again, this whole deal might just be a disinformation type ruse as Ukraine plans their spring offensive.
Dmitry Medvedev threatens Britain with nuclear annihilation (again)
(Updated April 21, 2023)
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of the Russian Security Council and one time President of Russia, once again threatened Britain with nuclear war. Writing on Telegram, Medvedev said “Britain was, is and will be our eternal enemy . . .” A popular scenario among Kremlin supporters is to threaten England with a radioactive tidal wave which would also inundate Ireland and possibly Iceland as well.
Continuing, he said “In any case, soon enough their impudent and disgustingly damp island will be sent into the abyss of the sea by waves created by the latest Russian weapons system.”
Preparations for the Ukranian offensive wind down
(Updated April 29, 2023)
At the moment a fuel depot in Sevastopol, home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet on the Crimean Peninsula is in flames, courtesy of the Ukraine’s fleet of drones. According to sources:
A Ukrainian military intelligence official said on Saturday more than 10 tanks of oil products with capacity of around 40,000 tonnes were destroyed in an explosion on the Russian-occupied port of Sevastopol on April 29, RBC Ukraine reported.”
Ships of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia on the celebration of the Day of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol.Photo credit: Pomorzev (Shutterstock.)
This has not been the first Ukranian drone attack on the port in Sevastopol. Regaining the Crimea is a non-negotiable goal for the Kjiv government and it may figure prominently in any attacks this spring.
Are there American NEST personnel in Ukraine?
Once again, the Russian forces are militarizing the captured Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Reports and photos from British Intelligence and reported on The Drive show sandbags and other fortifications on the roofs of several of the six reactors the plant which was captured last spring. This suggests that Russia may be integrating the nuclear power plant into its defenses, a very dangerous provocation. It is with this thought in mind that the U.S. is providing a role for its Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST.) The NY Timesreports that the NEST “is working with Ukraine to deploy the radiation sensors, train personnel, monitor data and warn of deadly radiation.” While the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Nuclear Security Administration has not admitted so, deployment of these sensors and the program details may likely require the presence of technicians from the U.S. who are familiar with the requirements and specifications involved to be deployed to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in the skies over Syria
Russian military jets flying over Syria are said to be engaging or attempting to engage into mock “dogfights” with American military planes. Both countries have vested interests in Syria, Russian to prop up the rehime of Bashar al-Assad and the U.S. to marginalize the spread and influence of ISIS. But a miscalculation over the skies of Syria causing a Russian plane or a U.S. plane to crash could lead to a broarder conflict in Ukraine.
Turnabout is fair Play
When President Putin decided to redefine contemporary boundaries in the Ukraine and insist on the use of Russian names for the cities within, he opened up a can of worms. Now, Poland is questioning the name and existence of the Russian enclave to the north carved out by the Soviets at the end of World War II nd named Kaliningrad. According to the Washington Post:
“Poland is reverting to using its historical name for Kaliningrad, the Russian city and administrative region that sits on its border.
From now on, it will be designated on Polish maps as Krolewiec, based on the recommendation of the government commission for geographic names abroad.”
Predictably, Moscow is outraged by this insolence, no less, however, than Ukraine after Russian likewise insulted Ukraine and started a land grab that ignited this whole mess.
Closer to a wider conflict than ever before
(Updated June 20, 2023)
A lot has happeneded over the past month. There was the collapse of the Kakhovka dam on June 6, 2023 killing 52 people downstream and flooding the countryside. I use the term “collapse” as some media do because it is uncertain exactly what happened–whether there was a bomb/explosion or whether the dam had been weakened earlier and just gave way. The current consensus seems to be that (one) there was an explosion and two, it was to Russia’s advantage since Ukraine was about to launch their spring offensive and flooding the battlefields twarted their plans.
Several days ago, Igor Kirillov, the head of Vladimir Putin’s Russian Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops accused the U.S. of planning to introduce malaria infected mosquitos into the Russian occupied territories to sicken Russian soldiers and cause their deaths. This scenario seems very unlikely to me.
Then, Russia is moving ahead by redeploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. There is absolutely no indication that NATO is moving about their nuclear assets, so this can be easily seen as a provocation. It is also puzzling that Putin chose to position these weapon systems in a third country, unless it is an issue to do with the range of these missiles.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council and a long term protégé of President Putin claimed last week Russia has “proof” that Western countries destroyed the Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipelines. According to Medvedev, that gives Russia the right to destroy the submerged transatlantic cables if it wishes. Said Medvedev on Telegram: “In that case there is nothing stopping us from destroying the undersea cables of our enemy.” Of course, Russia has not shared their “proof” with anyone. The current thinking is that Ukraine might have been the culprit. Russia and the U.S. are close second choices. I would be very disappointed if the U.S. were involved in this.
