One of my most popular posts, called “The Point of No Return,” speaks in depth about the currents of the Niagara River as one approaches the famous falls. Let me share a bit of information from that post:
The current is barely imperceptible when it is first noticed. Objects around us such as fallen leaves drift lazily as if stirred by a slight breeze. Slowly but surely, however, objects begin to move at a faster rate. And as the current gains momentum, the force of the water increases almost exponentially . . .1
Though many miles away, the falls exerts its presence at great distances with the determination and inevitability of a black hole.
Yet, water in a river does not flow in a straight line. Large rocks in the gorge can cause water downstream to recirculate, and these same obstacles can cause buffer waves on the upriver side of the objects. Meanwhile eddys cause water to swirl and can cause water to actually flow upstream. The downward slope of the river (called the gradient) and even the nature of the river bed all affect the current.
The water flowing closest to the river bed and the water at the surface of the river moves more slowly than the water between these two other layers. The unimpeded swift middle layer of water is called the laminar flow. The opposite to laminar flow is turbulent flow, where you begin to see “white water” caused by large objects in the water or the nature of the gorge or river banks, the dynamics of the flow, itself, etc. Sometimes the river is tempestuous. Other times, it is easy to overlook the danger one is facing, and for this reason, the authorities place warning signs for boaters, swimmer, and others. . .
At that point, you can feel the current, but if you are a good swimmer, you may likely escape it and save yourself. But as you get closer and closer to the falls, it becomes more and more difficult to make any headway, until finally your strength gives out and you’re tossed by the current ever closer to the edge as the current repeatedly pulls you down and the sound of the falls becomes positively deafening. You’ve reached the point of no return.“
Photo credit: Stulloyd100 iStock)
You cannot break free at this point.
Many of us who have lived even moderately active lives have been in situations at the beach, in swollen creeks and tempestuous rivers, even if only low-lying areas in our town during rain drenched downpours where we have felt the tug of a current of water. Small children who have played in ditches or near storm drains afer heavy rains have occasionally been swept off their feet and disappeared. Perhaps we’ve seen video of cars only partly submerged at an intersection slowly but surely fall into the clutches of a fast moving flow of water, only to be swept away to a watery grave miles downstream. People in most cases do not intend to risk their lives in situations like these. They are taken by surprize. Or, they miscalculate the risk involved because they fail to understand the laws of nature. Or, perhaps on the beach they venture beyond the cautionary signs and fall prey to rip currents. Good advice in these circumstances should never be ignored.
If this has ever happened to you, you will likely recall the startling surprize, followed by sheer panic, perhaps even shock as you lose your ability to accurately comprehend your predicament and formulate a careful, life saving plan. For example, when caught in a rip tide, even if only a matter of yards from the shoreline, you must swim parallel to the shore. Many swimmers mistakenly swim towards the shore and tire themselves out to no avail.
Surprize, miscalculation, risky adventures, panic. This is how we get washed away. This is how wars begin.
The currents of war
President John F. Kennedy (JFK) experienced this panic during the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 which, until perhaps now, was the closest the U.S. has even been to a nuclear war. His brother Robert Kennedy described the stress on his brother in his book “Thirteen Days.” To make matters worse, JFK suffered from Addison’s Disease, which complicated his ability to deal decisively with Premier Nikita Khrushchev.
The currents that President Kennedy negotiated during those thirteen days were definitely treacherous. President Kennedy believed that neither he nor Khrushchev could afford to blink and that an all-out war was envitable. As it turns out, history reveals that we were much closer to war than either Khrushchev or Kennedy realized. A plot was hatched under Cuban President Fidel Castro (perhaps by Che Guevara–my memory fails) to seize a Russian missile base and fire their missiles towards the U.S. without Russian consent. Whether that was technically feasible is another issue, however.
FAST FORWARD TO 2023
Christopher S Chivvis, a senior fellow and director of the Carnegie Endowment’s American statecraft program speaks of the present day currents that threaten to engulf nations around the world over the war in Ukraine. As the dynamic in Ukraine as powered by Russia continues to build, the currents will pull in not only countries such as Poland, Norway, Belarus, the UK and the US, but entire continents, whether North America, Asia (and most certainly Europe) on one side or the other. And once these currents are strong enough, there will no longer be any opportunity to stand-down or search for a peaceful resolution. Chivvis puts it this way:
Dangerous currents are carrying us toward a new, and very different, cold war. This time, China and Russia would be pitted against a US-led coalition of European and close Indo-Pacific allies like Japan, South Korea and Australia. The Biden Administration and some of their Chinese counterparts, probably hope to steer out of these currents, but it’s getting harder and harder.”
Even a casual reading of any daily newspaper today (for those few Americans who still receive one) will tell you certain things. The first is that Russia is losing badly to date in Ukraine. The second is that some Russian official, whether President Vladimir Putin himself, Former Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, or Defense Minister Sergei Shogun is always thumping their chest and warning what will happen to London or Washington if Russia “goes nuke.”
As of today, there have been almost weekly attacks on Russia or its ally Belarus; on Russian planes, oil storage deports, bridges and rail lines and other strategic targets either from sabotage or Ukrainian drones.
Not to be overlooked is North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un who likewise promises total annihilation of the U.S. at the earliest convenience. Against the repeated assurances of our military and civilian leadership over the past thirty years that North Korea will never be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and, even if they happen to, not be able to develop an intercontinental delivery system in any event, they have. It’s a fait accompli as they say in politics.
Then, there are the Chinese, who actually have more advanced weapons systems in some areas compared to the U.S. (for example in the area of supercavitating torpedos.) China is constantly pushing its frontier and sphere of influence further and further out by remodeling and developing atolls in the South China Seas on the so-called Nine Dash Line, so as to station aircraft, ports for China’s naval forces, and so on. This expansion puts Chinese military bases uncomfortably close to Australia, Japan, and other U.S. allies.
Also on page one on any given day is the ascendent violence in Israel and the Palestinian territories. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far right cabinet are pushing to allow Jews the same access and worship opportunities on the Temple Mount that Muslims have, and any attack on Jewish settlers is met with harsh retribution. Nor can Palestinians hope for a mortatorium on Jewish settlements on the West Bank. Then there is Iran. It may not be too many more months between war breaks out between Israel and Iran.
This year, Ukraine will receive F-16s and artillery with twice the range that they currently have. This may be the “Red Line” that Moscow is warning about. At the moment, the U.S. is dismissive of the idea, but some in the administration understand the need. Why deny Ukraine planes and artillery if they need for them to win the war? Does NATO want to wait until all of their tank are smashed by scattered Russian planes or Iranian drones seeking targets of opportunity? You cannot have Leopard, Challenger, or Abrams tanks crawing about without air support to protect them.
At the moment, the small country of Moldova is in danger of a coup and the forced installation of a pro-Russian head of state. Russian soldiers are already encamped in the Moldovian region of Trannistria. If Ukraine falls, other dominos outside the protection of NATO such Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo, etc. will fall. Finland will likely join this Spring, while Turkey holds up the application of Sweden indefinitely.
I was in a webinar last year featuring retired General Wesley Clark, the former Supreme Allied Commander in Europe. Speaking of the prospect of nuclear war, he pointed out that every Russian military exercise introduces nuclear weapons at the very end of the exercise. I understood his remark to mean that the intention to cross the threshold from conventional to unconventional warfare is more routine in the armed forces of Russia than it is in the West.
Statement by President Putin on the use of nuclear weapons
September 21, 2022: “‘If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people – this is not a bluff,'”‘ Putin said in a televised address to the nation.”
December 7, 2022: President Vladimir Putin says the risk of a nuclear war is rising but insists Russia has not “gone mad” and saw its own nuclear arsenal as a purely defensive deterrent.Nevertheless, Putin said Russia would defend its territory and its allies “with all available means”, adding that it was the United States, not Russia, that had deployed “tactical” nuclear weapons in other countries.
There are other currents which, like confluences, feed into the currents of war. The increasing use of robotic and artificial intelligence in military machines would be one. How do you get these machines to stand down if they lock you out? Repolarization, such as what we see between Russia, China and Iran at this very moment would be another. The use of economic sanctions against nations, global warming prompting mass migration from southern countries towards northern countries, authoritarian movements in developed countries that threaten democracy are others. Wars are much more likely when one belligerent is an authoritatian state.
The warning signs are clearly posted. The question is whether we in the West and our adversaries will take notice before we find ourselves caught in the current and being swept away to a tragic end.
