The curtains on this scene in the drama have parted, and Russian tanks are well on their way to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. Some would say the war began almost a decade ago, when Russia annexed Crimea. The title of this post roughly translated from Russian means “an uninvited guest is worse than a Tatar.” Незваный гость хуже татарина is explained as follows:

“No one likes an unexpected guest or visitor, even though they might pretend to from time to time. You’d use this saying when complaining to a friend or confidant—or straight to the culprit’s face if feeling confrontational—because it essentially means, “Your coming over unannounced is worse than a deadly, blood-soaked invasion.”

Except, the Russians unannounced, unwelcome intrusion into Ukraine is an invasion.

For weeks now, we’ve all heard members of the Biden Administration speak of hypothetical Russian “false flag” operations in front of reporters, television cameras, and the U.N. Security Council. I wondered whether or not Joe Biden and Boris Johnson weren’t overplaying their hands. Chemical warfare? Death lists? Touché. As it turned out, I learned something from President Biden and from President Putin.

How to launch a “false flag” operation

1. Get your friendly militias in Ukraine to round up hundreds of busses or other vehicles and force the evacuation of thousands of innocent, unsuspecting Ukraine men, women and children from their homes for immediate transfer to Russia. Insist that any Russian intention to invade Ukraine is hysteria and fake news.
2. Have the Duma and Federation Council recognize the two Ukraine provinces (oblasts); Donets’k and Luhans’k as independent nations that are trying to leave Ukraine.  Condemn and blame Ukraine for the scattered violence which has created the “humanitarian crisis” on the Russian side of the Ukraine border (when in fact it was the bus trips that forced the Ukraines to leave their homes against their will.) Insist you have no intention of sending military forces into Ukraine.
3. As President, sign the diplomatic recognition bill into law and vow to defend with force the brand new states of Donets’k Peoples Republic and Luhans’k Peoples Republic. Mention that deployed Russian forces are already returning to their home bases. Then . . .
4. Immediately cross the border into Ukraine with thousands of soldiers (10,000 by early estimates) and tanks and other weapons and military resources to join Russian forces already in Ukraine.
5. Search for and destroy any Ukraine forces intent on defending Donets’k and Luhans’k. Round up democratically elected leaders of the government of Ukraine along with the usual critics, comedians, artists, musicians, poets, human rights advocates and other dangerous intelligentsia for immediate shipment to Russia or for transfer into the hands of your militias for trial.

Zelenskyy’s safety is vital

Now that Russia has started the war, the U.S. or NATO must guarantee the physical safety of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his wife First Lady Olena Zelenska and their family. Today, President Zelenskyy has been asked by the U.S. to immediately move to the Ukraine city of Lviv, on the western border near Poland. The U.S. embassy has already destroyed the computer system in its old location in Kiev and moved to Lviv. Perhaps the embassy can shield him? However, he is the legitimate, popularly elected president of Ukraine and if he should suffer a tragic, mysterious death or be arrested or disappear, doubtlessly Russia would have a replacement candidate in mind to steer the country back into the Russian sphere of influence. Please follow this advise, President Zelenskyy. This is no laughing matter.

History: Revisionism vs. negationism

It is well established that different historians can look at the same facts, time lines, events, traditions, etc. and reach different conclusions. It is very clear, even intuitively clear to Mr. Putin that Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine have a common ancestry, cultural and spiritual bonds that have persisted for a thousand years more or less. A family of sorts. In fact, I’ve read that Russians think of Ukraine as their “little brother.” And, during the twentieth century, the Communists running the USSR and the allied powers after World War II flipped more real estate in eastern Europe than you see happening in Texas, today. President Putin believes that his interpretation of history is the only one possible and the correct one, and he is firmly entrenched in his belief. Belarus (White Russia) and Ukraine must remain joined part and parcel to Russia.

Western historians with equal conviction believe that President Putin is wrong. These historians believe that the West is correct when it says that Ukraine never fit neatly if at all into Putin’s historical puzzle, and that Russia has no prior claim to it.

Not an inch!

So then, history aside, why is Russia so interested in keeping Ukraine in the fold, moreso than Kazakh or Uzbek or Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan (though the Russian Federation space launching facility is in Kazakhstan.)

Since World War II ended, Moscow enjoyed a “buffer zone” from Western encroachment by exporting and fermenting communist revolutions or takeovers in many Eastern European countries such as Romania, Albania, Hungary and Poland to name just a few. These countries were more than just sympathetic votes in the U.N. General Assembly. All of these countries (and others) have since become free and having quickly abandoned communism, endeavored to join both the European Union and NATO, the allied military alliance in Europe. Estonia, Latvia, Norway and Turkey are countries in NATO which actually border Russia. Finland has preserved its independence with a policy or neutrality, but this “resurgent, militant Russia” might lead Finland to consider NATO membership, itself if Finland feels threatened. Romania, once communist, now is home to U.S. Aegis missiles, and another Aegis missile base is being constructed in Poland. The American public was told that these antiballistic missiles were defensive in nature and were placed there to deal with rogue states such as Iran or Libya and not Russia, but I personally never found that explanation to be even remotely compelling or satisfying. Nor did Russia, apparently. Moscow sees the surrounding NATO countries much like a noose, which is slowly constricting itself around the neck of Mother Russia.

Once a country is in NATO, every other NATO country is pledged to come to it’s defence were it attacked according to Article V or the North Atlantic Treaty (1949.) It is no longer a David vs Goliath situation (Estonia against Russia or Ukraine against Russia) but Europe and North America against Russia. Except that Ukraine is not on NATO (yet.)

Putin also believes that the West promised that NATO would never expand eastward. It did, and he feels betrayed. There are persuasive arguments that Putin is right and other convincing reasons that he is, in fact, wrong. Perhaps once again, history is yielding itself to two contradictory interpretations. You have to understand that when the Berlin Wall fell and the USSR collapsed, things were pretty

chaotic. Russia was economically ruined and Gorbachev’s program of Perestroika was unsettling to Kremlin diehards. Then, there was the issue of German Unification, something that made many in Europe (and particularly in Russia) nervous. NATO and the U.S. apparently gave the Russians guarantees that if they did not hinder East Germany from joining West Germany, they could be content knowing that there would never be a NATO base in what was East Germany. NATO would not encroach eastward on East German soil–not one inch. But what about other former communist countries much closer to Russia. What if they petitioned NATO for membership? Poland? Hungary? Romania? It seems like Secretary of State James Baker may have gotten carried away by the moment and promised Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not build any bases closer to Russia anywhere, not just Germany. But then, why did Gorbachev later deny this issue ever came up? See also.

I’ve heard from Rolf Nikel, Ambassador, Vice President German Council on Foreign Relations who was privy to the talks and he said NATO expansion was never discussed, and therefore Putin is deluding himself when he feels betrayed by the West. Others, however, say it did, and Putin’s grievances are warranted. It is fair to ask ‘What is Putin’s thinking?” NPR One offers an insightful interview on what is going through Putin’s mind

100 seconds to midnight

The war began last evening as far as the U.S. and the world were concerned. Half a dozen (now several dozen) Ukraine cities were bombed or struck with missiles. Russian army units are well south of Chenobyl on their way to Kiev. Half of Russians surveyed support the military action, but more than half of Americans want the U.S. to stay out of it (see poll on popularity.)

Putin today warned other countries to stay out of his fight, else they would witness “consequences you have never seen.” He’s clearly talking about the use of nuclear weapons, and he has advanced well beyond the U.S. in the area of delivery systems. The Doomsday Clock has been set at 100 seconds for sewveral years now, but likely it will be moved closer to zero hour before this crisis is over.

Read what Russian policy expert Fiona Hill says about Putin here.

For a fascinating background on Putin, see here.