I am a big fan of Bellingcat, the open-source intelligence (OSINT) group.  I’ve sat through one of their webinars earlier this year.  They do a tremendous work in geopositioning photos and videos as well as tracking conspiracies and so forth around the globe. So, I was more than a little eager–but a bit disappointed–to read their analysis of the famous July 12, 2022 Reaper video.

The Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) has been unable to solve the puzzle of what this object is, but Bellingcat believes they may have.  They believe is was quite possibly an ordinary balloon. I’m not sure that the Pentagon agrees, because ruling out an object so prosaic should have been their first step. If you have not yet seen this particular video, I’ve included it below.

Interestingly, the Pentagon states vaguely that the Reaper was on patrol in the “Mideast.”  That narrows it down to about a dozen countries.  Here, Bellingcat offers useful detail:

“Bellingcat geolocated the video to an area northeast of the Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor. The 25-second video begins at 35.369189, 40.332815 and ends at 35.374540, 40.339181, showing a group of buildings around 800 metres to the northeast.

Some of the features in the drone footage can be matched with features seen in Google Earth imagery from July 2022.”

So far, so good.  Next, they moved on to consider the size of the object.  Using the ability to measure the dimensions of objects in Google Earth for context and reference, Bellingcat goes on to say:

“As the object is floating above the ground, it is closer to the drone than the ground is to the drone and it could be smaller than 0.43 metres. It depends on the elevation of the object, which is unknown.”

Here is where I differ with Bellingcat.  For some reason they are discounting the possibility that the object is moving.  They suggest that the issue is one of parallax rather than motion.

Bellingcat notes:

“One explanation for why the orb does not demonstrate enigmatic technical capabilities is that it really is just a balloon. The object may not be moving at all, and we are simply witnessing a motion parallax in which the speed of the Reaper Drone relative to the object creates the illusion that the object is moving.”

In fact, the sphere does move independently as you can see in photos 1-3 where the camera is stationary and the object moves from top right to lower left center.

For example, consider the diagram below:

However, it you watch the original video (link enclosed). You’ll note that for the first three second after the orb comes into view, the Reaper camera is not moving.  But meanwhile, the background of each frame behind the sphere is different.  So how can that be a matter of parallax?  It takes about three seconds for the Reaper to note the sphere and start to chase it, taking a bit more time to catch it.  It is hard to see that as parallax, either. So, in the end, Bellingcat concludes that this is likely a balloon.

What’s more, using the three photos featured on the cover of the post, I was able to draw a straight line intersecting all three spheres over a distance of about ten to twenty meters or so.  I suppose balloons can travel rapidly in a straight line, but the speed of the object seems steady and the course straight as an arrow. And again, the Reaper struggles mightily to keep the sphere in the camera’s eye.

So, with this weeks report from Bellingcat and The Debrief writing off the Reaper sighting as a mere balloon, they have exercised one group’s confirmation bias, but this is a bias that I don’t personally share.