Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Black Swan Sighted!

WARNING! BLACK SWAN SIGHTED

If you Google the term “black swan,” you’ll likely be overwhelmed with references to a movie starring Natalie Portman. But you must keep scrolling. Those of you who have taken a course in statistics are familiar with the term “black swan,” because one black swan is all you need to overturn (falsify) the hypothesis that all swans in nature are white. This notion that all swans are white cannot be proven because one cannot observe all swans. Black swans are...

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