A lone Israeli Lockheed Martin F-35A Adir fighter darts briefly to the south as it speeds eastward though the early morning chill across the Jordan Valley towards Iran. This particular plane is one of the same fighters that attacked a Houthi fuel depot in Yemen on September 29, 2024. The Adir, which means “Strong One” in Hebrew and is one of the sobriquets of Yahweh, is headed 2,020 km towards Natanz, Iran where there is a Iranian nuclear facility. Today, we will see just how powerful it is. The normal range for this aircraft is 1,367 km, so it will need to be refuled in flight enroute to its target and again as it returns to Israel. The pilot hopes to squeeze a little more distance per fuel load because the Adir is carrying only one bomb. The Bomb! It has to be a special bomb. The Natanz facility is buried underground and covered by eight feel of reinforced concrete. On top of that are 72 feet of earth. Nothing conventional that Israel possesses can penetrate that far down. But what this Adir is carrying is sufficient. It will destroy the Iranian nuclear facility and much of the surrounding populace. This Adir has a good chance of reaching its target because the Iranian air defense network was destroyed earlier. While the Revolutionary Guard is distracted elsewhere, this lone wolf slips silently behind enemy lines like a German U-Boat approaching a convoy of fat troop ships and oilers on a moonless night during the last war. There is also a good chance for many Russian casualties because Russians work and hand glove with their Iranian allies at facilities such as Natanz. But that is of no concern to the pilot, however. The unanswered questions that flood his mind include whether he returns safely to his Nevtim Air Base in Israel and whether his base is still functional or not.
I had no sooner typed the opening paragraph to this post when I received the news that Iran had launched an hundred ballistic missiles towards Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Iran, itself, claims to have launched almost two hundred. Israel says that most missiles were destroyed. Iran says that 80% got through to their targets. Live news converage on CNN allowed you to see incoming missiles falling over Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Many appeared to be intercepted, one or two shown exploded on impact, but there were not the huge fires one might expect to see in an attack like this on an urban center. Iran needed to do something, because the “Arab Street” was loosing confidence in Iran. Where was Iran when Gaza was attacked, they wondered? When their Houthi allies were being rocketed? When Hezbollah was decapitated by exploding pagers and 2,000 pound bombs? When Lebanon was invaded by Israeli shock troops? The Western news reporters all agreed that this attack today was more intense and substantive than the Iranian attack on Israel last April. Even more substantive may be the Israeli response. But the Iranian threat must be countered.
THE JERICHO PROJECT
Israel began it’s nuclear program as soon as it received statehood. There was not any way they could continually prevail against the combined military forces of more than a dozen hostile nations. When the Six-Day War broke out, Israel was thought to have several atomic or nuclear devices. By the time of the Yom Kippur war of October 1973, they likely had even more devices. Israel also needed a delivery option. They had never used these weapons up until now, but the belief that they likely possessed them may have served as a deterrent to Arab countries intent on destroying Israel. But the nonstate actors such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and so on were certainly not deterred.
THE SAMPSON OPTION
The Yom Kippur War did not start off well for Israel. Israel won the Six-Day War handily because they preempted Eqypt and Syria. In 1973, the U.S. used it’s influence to coerce Israel into standing down and taking the first blow, and it was difficult for Israel to recover. There was a point in time (referenced in the movie “Golda” about Prime Minister Golda Meir) where Israel looked into the abyss, and Israeli General Moshe Dayan said to her: “This is the End of the Third Temple.” This was a cryptic reference to the yet to be built third temple, and it was meant to mean “Israel will lose this war unless we go nuclear.” Concerning the Israeli intent, we have this to note:
“Prime Minister Golda Meir and her “kitchen cabinet” made the decision on the night of 8 October. The Israelis assembled 13 twenty-kiloton atomic bombs. The number and in fact the entire story was later leaked by the Israelis as a great psychological warfare tool. Although most probably plutonium devices, one source reports they were enriched uranium bombs. The Jericho missiles at Hirbat Zachariah and the nuclear strike F-4s at Tel Nof were armed and prepared for action against Syrian and Egyptian targets. They also targeted Damascus with nuclear capable long-range artillery although it is not certain they had nuclear artillery shells.“
But before the missiles were launched, the enemies of Israel had a reprieve.
“On 11 October, a counterattack on the Golan broke the back of Syria’s offensive, and on 15 and 16 October, Israel launched a surprise crossing of the Suez Canal into Africa. Soon the Israelis encircled the Egyptian Third Army and it was faced with annihilation on the east bank of the Suez Canal, with no protective forces remaining between the Israeli Army and Cairo. The first U.S. flights arrived on 14 October.[63] Israeli commandos flew to Fort Benning, Georgia to train with the new American TOW anti-tank missiles and return with a C-130 Hercules aircraft full of them in time for the decisive Golan battle. American commanders in Germany depleted their stocks of missiles, at that time only shared with the British and West Germans, and sent them forward to Israel.“
Thus, the tide had changed to Israeli’s favor. Fortunately, Israel was able to pull back from the brink at the last moment. But what about today?
None of this is of any concern to the pilot of the Adir. He is just trying to save his people from yet another Holocaust and return home safely to his fiancé. And his aging parents. He scans the skies and listens to his plane for warnings that he has been discovered by hostile forces.
A FRIEND IN NEED
Israel has done a great deal of “schlep” work on behalf of the United States. For example, when Saddam Hussein was starting to develop a nuclear capability using the Oriris reactor near Baghdad, Israel, on June 7, 1981, struck the reactor and destroyed it, ending Hussein’s dreams of developing nuclear weapons, which might have otherwise been used against American forces in the first and second Persian Gulf Wars. Ironically, Israel may have saved Iranian lives as well because Iran was Iraq’s sworn enemy at the time. Then, when Syria tried their hand at developing nuclear weapons, Israel, on September 6, 2007, destroyed their plant as well. Now that the Houthia are attacking U.S. ships in the Red Sea, Israel is augmenting American and British strikes against those terrorists with attacks of their own. With every Israeli operation, Uncle Sam seems to wring his hands and warn the Israeli’s away–to turn the other cheek. But the truth is, Israeli has saved countless American lives by preempting terrorists and terror-sponsoring states.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
What comes next? Israel will have to retaliate. Israel has two options. The first is to respond “in kind,” but Israel has no patience for tit-for-tat exchange,s and if they leave any of Iran’s ability to attack Israel once again intact, then Israel may suffer worse in a third Iranian assault. At the least, Israel would have to destroy Iranian oil refineries or other vital parts of the country’s infrastructure. The news today is that several Israeli military bases were hit in the Tuesday attack, but remain functional. A subsequent Iranian attack might change that capability. As as former UN Ambassador and National Security Advisor John Bolton said today:
“the next time Israel cannot know that under the nose cone of an incoming ballistic missile might be a nuclear weapon.”
The other Israeli option is a massive attack on Iran (with missiles, aircraft, etc.) The goal would be to destroy most of Iran’s military bases, the nuclear facilities, factories that manufacture missiles and drones, and so on. You might wonder how this would sit with the Arab World? In fact, the Iranian government is not a popular regime in the Arab World because first of all, it is not Arab and secondly, the people of Iran are Shia and not Sunni, like the overwhelmingly percent of Muslims are in the world. Students of Islam will tell you that there is palpable tension between the two sects. The conflict goes back to the assassination of Ali ibn Abi Talib, the cousin and son-in-law to the Prophet who became Caliph not long after the death of Muhammed. More recently, in July 1987 during the Haj or annual pilgrimage to Mecca, the Saudi authorities claimed that Iranian pilgrims had been primed by Iranian authorities to cause trouble during the event. In fact, there was a riot between Iranian worshippers and Saudi police, and as many as 400 people were killed during that “holy festival.” So, following an Israeli attack on Iran, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) might complain or demand that the UN Security Council meet, or at least the OIC would introduce a resolution in the UN General Assembly, but their heart won’t be in it. Plus, Iran arms the Houthi terrorists in Yemen, and they are a sworn enemy to the Saudi Kingdom as well. As far as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf States are concerned, it would be “good riddance” for a secular, non-interventional government to replace the Shia regime in Tehran.
Israel must also be careful not to bite off more than it can chew. They are currently occupying Gaza, keeping the West Bank from rising up, moving troops into Lebanon, and with some unforeseen and unintended consequence, they might find themselves wrestling once again with the Sampson Option.
Israel is meeting with the BIden Administration to plan their attack. They will need U.S. military assistance for the defense of Israel, the speedy replentishment of spent munitions, and perhaps assistance with the attack as well. If Israel ever wanted an excuse to cripple the Iranian nuclear program this, then, is that excuse. Will the response lead to a wider war? Will it tilt the U.S. election one way or the other? Will things spiral out of control and other nations become emboldened to fight or start conflicts of their own? These are all unanswered questions. Hopefully, however, we will not see the end of the Third Temple anytime soon.
