The last fourteen months since Hamas attacked Israel have fundamentally reshaped the Mideast in ways that very few observers might have guessed. Today, the terrorist group Hamas is leaderless, as is the terrorist group Hezbollah. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who so ruthlessly murdered men, women and children (25,857 children, and 15,761 women as of March 2022) in the Syrian Civil War has fled to Russia to save his own life. Islamic terrorists in Yemen are reeling under the blows of American, British and Israeli attacks in defense of free shipping for all nations in the Red Sea. Iran has also been stung by Israeli retaliatory attacks. Meanwhile, even Russia stands to lose. At the moment an unspecified number of Russian soldiers remain in Syria, and one pocket of Russians fighters appear to be surrounded by forces allied with the victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS.). The winds of change are blowing across the region.
Russia has two important bases in Syria, both on the Mediterranean coast. The more important base of the two is a naval base at Tarsus. At the moment (December 10th), there appears to be two Russian Frigates, a support vessel, and a submarine, though they have been moved several miles off coast according to reports. If Russia were to lose this base, they would have to depend on Turkey to grant them passage through the Dardanelles to return to Russia territory (unless they took the long way around Western Europe to get to Murmansk Oblast and the Kola Bay area, east of Finland and the Kola Bay area.) And if Turkey did approve transit as they very well might, these surface ships would be tempting target for Ukraine as the ships passed through the Black Sea.
The air base at Khmeimen is also important to Russia. The War Zone reports that at the moment multiple transport planes are on the tarmac at the base, including three IL-76s and one AN-124. Both bases are valuable to Russia for their activities not only in the Mideast but also in Africa. Presumably these planes would be used to evacuate Russian military and diplomatic personnel and advisors.
So, the Syrian victory for the HTS came at a sort of Trifecta, partly engineered by Israel. The loss of Hezbollah as a military force in Syria—one that propped up the al-Assad regime and the inability of Iran to stabilize the status quo and stem their losses helped the opposition forces. Then, Russia also had to pull out assets from Syria and redeploy them to fight the Ukrainian way, and Bashar al-Assad suddenly realized that the road to Damascus was more or less completely undefended.
Israel has responded to the change in power by attacking Syrian weapons depots and airfields, including facilities involved in the manufacture and/or storage of chemical weapons. They claimed to have destroyed the Syrian Navy and Air Force, lest these advanced weapons fall into enemy hands. They have also seized a few kilometers of Syrian land around Mt Hermon as a buffer zone and to better observe their new neighbors. The new leader in Syria, was at one time a terrorist named Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani (his real name is Ahmad al Sharaa.) His recent statements suggest that he has “seen the light” and will renounce jihad and defend democracy, Syrian womanhood, and فطيرة التفاح. In fact, he has offered blanket amnesty to Syrian soldiers who surrender and they are doing so in large numbers. However, the Israelis are skeptical. Even the Taliban in present day Afghanistan promised reforms when they seized power several years ago and they kept their word (until they didn’t.)
At the moment, there is a blame game of sorts going on in Iran. Iran invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Yemen and this now seems all for naught. Turkey is using this present vacuum to attack the Syrian Kurds who were one-time allies of the U.S. The U.S. itself is active in eastern Syria attacking ISIS elements trying to regroup. No one can predict what might be next.
